Final Oscar Predictions: Best Actor — With Only Five Spots, Who Will Make the Cut?

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety chief awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

Oscars Best Actor Commentary (Updated Jan. 20, 2026): This one category could be a standard five that everyone seems to be predicting. Or, with seven strong contenders, five seats, and no clear flops, we could get a surprise snub or two.

Timothée Chalamet and Leonardo DiCaprio have the pedigree and the momentum of their movies, Michael B. Jordan has the buzz, and Wagner Moura just won a Globe just in the knick of time. Ethan Hawke is still that sneaky contender that many are underestimating for “Blue Moon.” If the movie does manage a second nom in screenplay or best picture… watch out!

And then we have Joel Edgerton who picked up some late heat for “Train Dreams” and if Jacob Elordi is a top-two contender for “Frankenstein,” that could mean Oscar Isaac is a surprise inclusion that could pop up.

The nominees for the Actor Awards (formerly the SAG Awards) are Timothée Chalamet (“Marty Supreme”), Leonardo DiCaprio (“One Battle After Another”), Ethan Hawke (“Blue Moon”), Michael B. Jordan (“Sinners”) and Jesse Plemons (“Bugonia”).

The BAFTA longlist paints a more broad and international picture, naming Robert Aramayo (“I Swear”), Chalamet (“Marty Supreme”), Russell Crowe (“Nuremberg”), DiCaprio (“One Battle After Another”), Joel Edgerton (“Train Dreams”), Hawke (“Blue Moon”), Jordan (“Sinners”), Harry Melling (“Pillion”), Cillian Murphy (“Steve”) and Plemons (“Bugonia”).

At the Golden Globes on Sunday, the split categories expanded the field even further. In lead actor (drama), the Globes recognized Edgerton (“Train Dreams”), Oscar Isaac (“Frankenstein”), Dwayne Johnson (“The Smashing Machine”), Jordan (“Sinners”), Wagner Moura (“The Secret Agent”) and Jeremy Allen White. In lead actor (musical or comedy), the nominees were Chalamet (“Marty Supreme”), George Clooney (“Jay Kelly”), DiCaprio (“One Battle After Another”), Hawke (“Blue Moon”), Lee Byung-hun (“No Other Choice”) and Plemons (“Bugonia”).

The Critics Choice Awards ultimately handed the lead actor win to Chalamet, with nominations also going to DiCaprio, Edgerton, Hawke, Jordan and Moura.

Nominations voting will begin Monday, Jan. 12, and conclude Friday, Jan. 16. Official nominations for the 98th Academy Awards will be revealed Thursday, Jan. 22. The 98th Academy Awards will take place Sunday, March 15, at the Dolby Theatre and will be televised live on ABC in more than 200 territories worldwide.