The Actor Awards Nominations Shake Up the Actress Oscar Races, but Best Picture Is Status Quo

It wouldn’t be totally fair to say that Screen Actors Guild members don’t know how to read subtitles, as the group nominated two of the stars of French entry “Emilia Pérez” last year. This year, the most glaring omissions from their 2026 Actor Awards nominees in terms of how predictive they are of the Oscars? All the performances from Best International Feature contenders like “Sentimental Value” and “The Secret Agent.”

There was a smidge of hope for the stars of those two films, given how Stellan Skarsgård and Wagner Moura are actually established screen presences in the U.S., similar to Zoë Saldaña, last year’s Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role winner for “Emilia Pérez.” Even taking the language barrier out of the equation, “Sentimental” and “Secret Agent” distributor Neon has only ever had four films nominated at the Actors Award — three of which won Oscars.

Keep in mind that the Screen Actors Guild can only go so far toward becoming a global brand, as the union advocates on behalf of actors in the United States specifically. Much like other recent Actor Awards snubs that still made it to the Oscars — like Sandra Hüller in “Anatomy of a Fall,” or Antonio Banderas in “Pain and Glory,” or Yalitzia Aparicio in “Roma” — are we really going to worry that the buck stops here for Moura, Skarsgård, or the women of “Sentimental Value” (Renate Reinsve, Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, and Elle Fanning)? They’ve been consistently nominated by pretty much every other awards body so far.

With the international bias out of the way, let’s get to the real awards campaigns that took a hit on Wednesday morning. Historically, the Actor Awards have been very gracious to their network partner Netflix, with offbeat nominations for Adam Sandler in “Hustle” or Eddie Redmayne in “The Good Nurse.” This time, despite eight films campaigning, only “Frankenstein” earned any nominations from the guild: for ensemble, stunts, and supporting actor Jacob Elordi. 

Jacob Elordi at the 31st Annual Critics Choice Awards held at the Barker Hangar on January 04, 2026 in Santa Monica, California.Christopher Polk/Variety

The young star has already been the studio’s top acting contender, especially after winning the Critics Choice Award, but “Train Dreams” star Joel Edgerton has been almost as consistent. The perception of the Best Actor race has been that either he or “Blue Moon” star Ethan Hawke will earn the fifth nomination slot, with Timothée Chalamet, Leonardo DiCaprio, Michael B. Jordan, and Wagner Moura being the most locked in, but based on these nominations, “Bugonia” star Jesse Plemons is right there with Edgerton and Hawke.

Ultimately, it just feels like “Train Dreams” drew the short straw across the board. If you break down the current Best Picture nomination frontrunners, all five Best Ensemble nominees at the Actor Awards are considered locks for the Oscars (“Frankenstein,” “Hamnet,” “Marty Supreme,” “One Battle After Another,” and “Sinners”). “Avatar: Fire and Ash” never stood a chance because of the continued bias against motion capture performances, but it’s bolstered by its below-the-line support. The same could be said for “Wicked: For Good,” which doubled its appearances on the Oscars shortlists this season, though it is telling that not even star Cynthia Erivo earned an Actor Awards nomination after “Wicked” was the guild’s nominations leader last year. 

Again, “The Secret Agent” and “Sentimental Value” are the two top examples of international films with a strong hold in the Best Picture race, but now looking at the Actor Awards nominations, even Apple’s “F1” has more nominations (i.e., one) than any other Netflix film besides “Frankenstein.” “Train Dreams” still had a strong showing with the Oscars shortlists as well — stronger than “Bugonia” for example — so even if the chances of Edgerton getting a Best Actor nomination have weakened, it’s too early to say the Netflix film is totally out of the Best Picture race.

These Actor Awards nominations do, however, feel like the death knell for Noah Baumbach’s “Jay Kelly.” Netflix’s George Clooney vehicle is also showbiz-focused, which usually bodes well for its awards prospects. But that even Sandler, an early Oscar nomination frontrunner, didn’t make it in is a tough blow to the film’s awards campaign. Other contenders who made the cut at the Golden Globes, for example, but have had their momentum cut by these Actor Awards nominations are Dwayne Johnson and Emily Blunt for “The Smashing Machine,” Amanda Seyfried for “The Testament of Ann Lee,” Jeremy Allen White for “Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere,” Tessa Thompson for “Hedda,” and Jennifer Lawrence for “Die My Love.”

Renate Reinsve, Joachim Trier, Stellan Skarsgård, Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, and Elle Fanning at the ‘Sentimental Value’ Los Angeles premiere after party held at Laurel Hardware on November 05, 2025 in West Hollywood, California.Tommaso Boddi/Variety

In terms of which awards campaigns are celebrating, we can probably now say that Emma Stone is comfortably back in the Best Actress race for “Bugonia.” The Actor Awards contender who could be bumped out by Reinsve at the Oscars is “Song Sung Blue” star Kate Hudson (huge credit to Focus Features for the three out of five nominations in the Actor Awards category). Best Supporting Actor is also likely to mirror the corresponding Actor Awards nominee list, with Skarsgård taking the place of Miles Caton (who has been trading off these nominations with “Sinners” co-star Delroy Lindo).

The Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role nominations will likely be the most influential on the Academy Awards nominations. “Wicked: For Good” star Ariana Grande, “Weapons” star Amy Madigan, and “One Battle After Another” star Teyana Taylor are considered locks, but this is not the first time “Sinners” star Wunmi Mosaku has trumped “Sentimental Value” stars in an awards race, and among all of the acting categories, “Marty Supreme” breakout Odessa A’Zion has been pegged as the most likely late-breaking Oscar contender coming out of the holiday season, where the A24 film was an arthouse hit.

The Actors Awards will stream live on Netflix on March 1, 2026, right in the middle of final voting for the Oscars. Winning one of these will move the needle for these contenders’ Oscar chances.