Will the Netflix and Warner Bros. Merger Kill HBO Max for Good? Not So Fast...

HBO Max has undergone multiple changes since its inception in 2020. It's gone through two different sets of owners, dropped the "HBO" part of its name in 2023 and regained it last year, and seen whole chunks of its library disappear for nothing more than tax write-offs. Yet a major change is on the horizon, as Warner Bros.'s potential merger with Netflix has people asking about the future of the streamer. After all, Netflix is the streaming service, so why would it need HBO Max around? The answer isn't that simple, according to Professor and chair of the Department of Media Studies at CU Boulder, Ted Striphas.

During a conversation with Collider’s Joe Schmidt, Striphas mentioned that HBO Max wouldn't be shuttered down...at first. Rather, it would eventually become a hub in Netflix's ever-growing library of films and TV movies, similar to how Hulu is being fully integrated into Disney+ later this year:

"I'm thinking of the ways in which Hulu and Disney have integrated recently so that you get these omnibus platforms where they still retain the identity Hulu over here, [Disney] over here so that you can access them each through the same portal. It wouldn't be surprising to me to see if, essentially, HBO Max becomes a channel within Netflix and then Netflix is offered reciprocally under the auspices of HBO Max. But at some point down the road, I would be shocked if they aren't consolidated."

If the Warner Bros./Netflix merger does go through and HBO Max winds up becoming a potential hub for Netflix's main streaming service, it would mark massive changes both in the types of projects Netflix is bringing to the table and even the way movies are released. In turn, the landscape of the theatrical business would radically change, and not necessarily for the better.

There's a Major Reason Why Netflix is Looking to Purchase Warner Bros.

Striphas also addressed the major reason why Netflix is looking to acquire Warner Bros., and that's due to its deep bench of intellectual property. Warner Bros.' umbrella spreads over a variety of brands, including the heroes of DC Comics, Bugs Bunny and the rest of the Looney Tunes, and the Harry Potter franchise, which Netflix described as the "crown jewel" of its acquisition. In contrast, Netflix's attempts to build blockbuster franchises with films like The Electric State and Rebel Moon have rarely panned out, so it makes sense that the streamer would attempt to leverage other IP.

Integrating HBO Max into Netflix would only help, as HBO Max's library features a wide range of critically acclaimed movies that would be a major draw to Netflix users. Whether it's the heart and action that James Gunn's Superman brought to the table, the sheer adrenaline thrill of the MonsterVerse movies, or the horror hit that is The Conjuring franchise, there are plenty of movies that Netflix could bolster its library with, which in turn would draw potential new subscribers.

Netflix's Aversion to Theaters Could Radically Reshape Warner Bros' Theatrical Slate & Movie Theaters

When Netflix first announced it was making its major bid for Warner Bros., this led to one major question: what would happen to Warner Bros' theatrical slate? The streamer seems to have an active contempt for theatrical releases, only choosing to debut certain movies for the length it takes to be awards season worthy or only choosing breakout hits like KPop Demon Hunters and the series finale of Stranger Things. When addressing the potential shakeup of the theatrical experience, Netflix CEO Ted Sarandos attempted to assure stockholders that things wouldn't change:

"In this transaction, we pick up three businesses we’re not currently in, so we have no redundancies currently. One of them is a motion picture studio with a theatrical distribution machine. We’re deeply committed to releasing those movies exactly the way they would release those movies today."

Sarandos' words, while seeming like a total 180 from his total dismissal of the theatrical experience, may not hold much water as previous mega-mergers have led to massive changes. The Disney/Fox merger led to whole departments and films being shut down, while Paramount has been exacting its own regime change following its merger with Skydance. Given that Netflix's theatrical windows tend to be around 17 days long, which is far shorter than the usual 30-45 days for other films, film fans could be seeing less cultural events like Sinners or One Battle After Another, which would be a huge blow to the theatrical landscape.

There's one trick that Netflix might pull off if it does go through with the Warner Bros. merger, and its origins lie with HBO Max. In 2021, then-CEO of WarnerMedia Jason Kilar launched what was referred to as "Project Popcorn", giving every movie in Warner Bros.'s 2021 slate a day-and-date release on HBO Max in addition to its theatrical release. While this did lead to an increase in HBO Max subscribers, it ended up affecting the films' box office draw and alienating talent — most notably Christopher Nolan, who denounced the decision in a fiery statement and took his next film, Oppenheimer, to Universal. If Netflix takes a similar route, it could end up alienating talent and transforming theaters into "jazz bars", a fear that Leonardo DiCaprio recently expressed.

If Netflix Absorbs HBO Max, It Wins the Streaming Wars

The biggest argument against mega-mergers is that they effectively demolish what should be a competitive landscape, and Netflix's acquisition of Warner Bros. would utterly dominate its competition in the streaming landscape. Combining Netflix's vast amount of original programming with the library of intellectual property that HBO Max utilizes would effectively make it the biggest streamer in the game. Netflix co-CEO Greg Peters even threw shade at Paramount's attempts to buy Warner Bros, saying that it couldn't purchase its way to the top; ironically, that's what Netflix is doing with its own pursuit of Warner Bros.

Whether Netflix finally goes through with its acquisition of Warner Bros. or if Paramount makes an offer that Warner Bros. can't refuse, the future of movies is going to look a lot different. HBO Max is going to be a part of that, whether it remains its own streaming service or not.