The Golden Globes Have Cemented The 98th Oscar Frontrunners

The 83rd Golden Globes have come and gone, and along the way they've helped cement the state of the Oscars race. While the Globes and the Oscars don't always have exact matches in their list of winners, the Globes tend to be a consistent predictor for the eventual victor at the Academy Awards.

This year, the winners at the Golden Globes were all already considered front-runners for their respective categories, suggesting that the season has some clear favorites. With snubs at other award ceremonies playing a factor as well, the Golden Globe wins and losses mean that the Oscar frontrunners have pushed themselves to the front of the pack in dramatic fashion.

The Golden Globe's Actor Categories Play Into Some Key Award Season Narratives

While the overall voting block of the Golden Globes pales in comparison to the large number of Academy members who ultimately decide the Oscars, some of the biggest wins at the Golden Globes have cemented the Oscar frontrunners. While there can be upsets or snubs, award season narratives are typically crucial to earning Oscar gold.

If certain performers are seen as picking up more steam, then it becomes easier for momentum to carry them through the ups and downs of various award races towards a win at the Oscars. That's why the Golden Globes' choices are so important, as they can help shape, refine, and cement the narratives of the season.

Timothée Chalamet was already a frontrunner for Best Actor, but his win at the Golden Globes seems to have formally given him the edge over other competitors like Michael B. Jordan and Leonardo DiCaprio. While Wagner Moura also won an award for The Secret Agent, his failure to get a SAG nomination will likely hurt him.

Given these early wins and the overall success of Marty Supreme with wider audiences, Chalamet seems to be the clear favorite to win the Oscar. Things are a little tighter for Jesse Buckley, who snagged a Best Actress award for her performance in Hamnet. Buckley has long been the projected frontrunner, and her win confirms that.

While she faces stiff competition in the form of fellow Golden Globe winner Rose Byrne and Sentimental Value's Renate Reinsve, the overall placement of Hamnet in other categories will be a boon to Buckley. If Hamnet does continue getting overshadowed by One Battle After Another, voters might flock to Buckley's performance as a means of rewarding the film with something.

Byrne's win for Best Actress in a Musical or Comedy is a huge boon for the star, suggesting she will go from a dark horse contender to a nearly surefire nomination. However, Hamnet's pedigree might keep Byrne from netting a win. Similar to Mourna's snub from the SAG Award nominations, Reinsve's omission suggests she's losing momentum in the race.

Before the Golden Globes, there was plenty of discussion over who could be considered frontrunners for Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress. However, the Golden Globes ultimately went to two performers long favored to snag an Oscar, Stellan Skarsgård and Teyana Taylor.

Both of them deliver great performances, but this has long felt like the category that could have the biggest surprise, whether that be Amy Madigan in Weapons or Jacob Elordin Frankenstein. However, both of those performances need to start snagging victories away from Skarsgard and Taylor to pick up the necessary momentum.

The Golden Globes Gives The Best Picture Race A Clear Favorite

Before the Oscars have even gotten close to being aired, the narrative formed that the frontrunners for the Best Picture and Best Director awards were caught in a three-way race: One Battle After Another, Hamnet, and Sinners each have their vocal champions and plenty of good reason to be considered frontrunners.

As time has gone on, though, One Battle After Another has increasingly picked up more awards. The Golden Globes are just the latest. Combined with Paul Thomas Anderson feeling overdue for an Oscar, it seems that his win for Best Director and his film's victory as Best Picture is a likely finale to the Oscars.

However, that doesn't mean Sinners and Hamnet will be going home empty-handed. Sinners' focus on music earned it a Best Score Golden Globe, which seems to be a likely forerunner for the Oscars. The most interesting question for all three films raised by the Golden Globes is in the Best Screenplay category.

The Golden Globe went to One Battle After Another, further suggesting that the film will do well for itself at the Oscars. However, the Academy Awards split the screenplay competition in a way the Golden Globes don't, awarding a prize for Best Original Screenplay and Best Adapted Screenplay.

This is where Sinners benefits the most in the race, as One Battle After Another and Hamnet will be duking it out for an Adapted Screenplay award, leaving Ryan Coogler as the only real frontrunner for Best Original Screenplay. Meanwhile, Hamnet might achieve the Adapted Screenplay Oscar, but it seems less likely after the Golden Globes.

One of the most exciting categories at the Oscars this year will be Best Original Song, with a plethora of great choices for the Academy to choose from. However, despite the lingering impact of Sinners, KPop Demon Hunters earning the Golden Globe seems to have further cemented Netflix's animated film as the one to beat in that category.

There's plenty of time left between now and the Oscars, and more narratives could take shape as award season goes on. However, the Golden Globes awarded the established frontrunners with more than just trophies: given the shape of the race and the trajectory of the season, the Golden Globes also gave its winners some real confidence for the Oscars.