PC shipments grew in 2025 but the market 'will be far different in 12 months given how quickly the memory situation is evolving'

2025 was a particularly weird year for the PC market. We started it with a new generation of Nvidia and AMD cards and tariff worries, and ended it with the start of a memory crisis and, err, tariff worries. Preliminary reports suggest that PC sales ended strongly, but also suggest that 2026 could be much worse

A report sent to PC Gamer by the Internal Data Corporation claims a 9.6% growth year over year in the fourth quarter of 2025, but it "expects that the PC market will be far different in 12 months given how quickly the memory situation is evolving." IDC's research vice president, Jean Philippe Bouchard, said: "Beyond the obvious pressure on prices of systems, already announced by certain manufacturers, we might also see PC memory specifications be lowered on average to preserve memory inventory on hand. The year ahead is shaping up to be extremely volatile.”

The end of 2025 saw a bump in the market share of Lenovo, HP, and Dell, with Apple and Asus seeing slight drops from the same period in the previous year. Notably, IDC points out that 2026 could prove to be an opportunity for larger brands to push out smaller, more bespoke competition.

Jitesh Ubrani, the research manager of IDC's Worldwide Mobile Device Trackers, said, "Large consumer electronics brands are well positioned to leverage their scale and memory allocations to capture shares from smaller and regional vendors. However, the severity of the shortage raises the risk that smaller brands may not survive, and consumers, particularly DIY enthusiasts, may delay purchases or shift their spending to other devices or experiences."

IDC reckons that the average selling prices of rigs are expected to rise in 2026, and vendors will prioritise midrange and premium systems. This is done to offset the higher costs of individual components, paying particular attention to memory.

Omdia has also given its end-of-year report, with similar findings to the IDC (with a claimed 9.2% growth year over year). It also claims there's value for the big players to push out smaller companies through simply surviving the memory crisis. Ben Yeh, principal analyst at Omdia, argues:

"In 2026, with device replacement demand not yet fully abated, supply-side pressures will be more pronounced and supply will not fully meet demand. Actual shipment performance will hinge on vendors’ memory and storage procurement and negotiating leverage; beyond scale, their track records and credibility with suppliers will be a decisive factor in determining their success in navigating this period of complexity."

Still, if memory shortages continue well into the year, and the only ones able to survive it are big companies with deep pockets and good deals, it's hard to feel too optimistic about the prospects of the PC market overall.