Oscar Predictions: Supporting Actor — Jacob Elordi Breaks Through at Critics Choice as the Race Stays Fluid

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety chief awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

Oscars Best Supporting Actor Commentary (Updated Jan. 9, 2026): This race has quietly become one of the most interesting and narratively rich races on the ballot, shaped by ensemble-heavy best picture contenders and a handful of performances that have emerged as undeniable scene-stealers, despite key misses on the awards circuit.

The Actor Awards (formerly SAG Awards) narrowed the field to five, naming surprise inclusion Miles Caton (“Sinners”), Benicio Del Toro and Sean Penn (both for “One Battle After Another”), Jacob Elordi (“Frankenstein”) and Paul Mescal (“Hamnet”). That group shows where the Actors Branch might currently lie, despite the Stellan Skarsgård snub.

BAFTA’s longlist shows the internationally-leaning strong contenders citing Benicio Del Toro and Sean Penn for “One Battle After Another,” alongside Jacob Elordi (“Frankenstein”), Delroy Lindo (“Sinners”), Paul Mescal (“Hamnet”), Peter Mullan (“I Swear”), Adam Sandler (“Jay Kelly”), Andrew Scott (“Blue Moon”), Alexander Skarsgård (“Pillion”) and Stellan Skarsgård (“Sentimental Value”).

At the Critics Choice Awards, Elordi scored the win for his transformative turn as the Creature in “Frankenstein,” prevailing over Del Toro, Mescal, Penn, Adam Sandler and Stellan Skarsgård. The victory positions Elordi as a serious threat, particularly as his performance continues to resonate across multiple voting bodies.

The Golden Globes, which announce winners on Sunday, could further complicate the matter, depending on who wins. Nominees include Del Toro (“One Battle After Another”), Elordi (“Frankenstein”), Mescal (“Hamnet”), Penn (“One Battle After Another”), Sandler (“Jay Kelly”) and Stellan Skarsgård (“Sentimental Value”). With no single performance sweeping the precursors, the race remains fluid (although Del Toro leads overall). This will likely hinge on how Academy voters respond to the balance between transformation, screen time and the gravitational pull of best picture strength.

Nominations voting will begin Monday, Jan. 12 and conclude Friday, Jan. 16. Official nominations for the 98th Academy Awards will be revealed Thursday, Jan. 22. The 98th Academy Awards will take place Sunday, March 15, at the Dolby Theatre and will be televised live on ABC in more than 200 territories worldwide.