Oscar Predictions: Original Screenplay — With Few Signals, ‘Sinners’ Takes an Early Lead

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety chief awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

Oscars Best Original Screenplay Commentary (Updated Jan. 9, 2026): This might be the most opaque major race on the Oscar ballot this season. That’s not because there’s a lack of contenders, but because the usual industry signposts simply haven’t materialized yet.

With Writers Guild Award nominations and BAFTA nominations both scheduled to be announced after Oscar nominations are revealed, voters and prognosticators are operating with unusually limited information. As a result, the BAFTA longlist is effectively the only broad industry indicator currently available, making it disproportionately influential in shaping early assumptions.

That longlist includes “Blue Moon,” “A House of Dynamite,” “I Swear,” “Is This Thing On?,” “It Was Just an Accident,” “Marty Supreme,” “The Secret Agent,” “Sentimental Value,” “Sinners” and “Weapons.” Notably, this is the only group that overlaps significantly with the perceived Oscar voting demographic.

The Critics Choice Awards provided the clearest signal to date, awarding “Sinners” original screenplay for Ryan Coogler. The other nominees included Noah Baumbach and Emily Mortimer (“Jay Kelly”), Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie (“Marty Supreme”), Zach Cregger (“Weapons”), Eva Victor (“Sorry, Baby”) and Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier (“Sentimental Value”). Coogler’s win for “Sinners” immediately positioned the filmmaker as the early frontrunner and is the category’s most visible contender.

Still, without WGA guidance, it’s difficult to know how writers are truly coalescing. Several plausible outside contenders remain in play. “The Secret Agent,” written by Kleber Mendonça Filho, has international prestige and auteur credibility. “Sorry, Baby,” by Eva Victor, has already drawn the attention of critics. “Is This Thing On?,” co-written by Will Arnett, Mark Chappell and Bradley Cooper, could benefit from name recognition (Cooper hasn’t missed a screenplay nomination yet with his first two films). And “Jay Kelly,” from Baumbach and Mortimer, has proven industry respect despite missing the BAFTA longlist.

The Golden Globes’ combined best screenplay category offers another potential preview. Among the nominees, three original screenplays — Ryan Coogler’s “Sinners,” Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie’s “Marty Supreme,” and Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier’s “Sentimental Value” — continue to surface as consistent cross-precursor players, while Jafar Panahi’s Palme d’Or winner “It Was Just an Accident” adds an international auteur presence that aligns with BAFTA’s longlist but remains harder to place within the Academy’s broader voting blocs.

In short, this is a category defined by uncertainty. Go with your gut (and hearts) on your predictions (and ballots).

Nominations voting will begin Monday, Jan. 12, and conclude Friday, Jan. 16. Official nominations for the 98th Academy Awards will be revealed Thursday, Jan. 22. The 98th Academy Awards will take place Sunday, March 15, at the Dolby Theatre and will be televised live on ABC in more than 200 territories worldwide.