Oscar Predictions: Jacob Elordi and Timothée Chalamet's Critics Choice Wins Are Shaping The Awards Field

Welcome to Collider's FYC hub, your best resource for Oscars 2026 predictions. Here, Senior Producer Perri Nemiroff keeps you up to date on the leading contenders based on her knowledge of industry trends and whispers, and her own personal thoughts and instincts. Remember to come back often for updates! The odds are always changing.

Update: January 6, 2026

The Critics Choice Awards have officially set the tone for the season. Usually, the Golden Globes are the first awards ceremony of the New Year, but in 2026, the CCAs and the Globes have swapped spots, allowing the critics to get first dibs on teasing and/or shaping the rest of the season.

For the most part, the Critics Choice Awards put category frontrunners into focus. In Best Actor, it appears to be coming down to Leonardo DiCaprio for One Battle After Another and Timothée Chalamet for Marty Supreme. Chalamet's win at the CCAs solidifies his place as our #1 in the category. The same is true for Jessie Buckley in Best Actress. It seemed as though Rose Byrne might have surpassed the Hamnet star as the most likely winner for her work in If I Had Legs I'd Kick You, but Buckley's CCA win for Hamnet paired with an especially moving acceptance speech gives her a firmer hold on the top spot in that category.

We also have two films that have distanced themselves from the pack in Best Picture. It's One Battle After Another and Sinners. Given One Battle took home Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Adapted Screenplay, it does appear to be the Best Picture frontrunner at the Oscars. But, it is also worth noting that the Critics Choice Association opted to spread the love. While Sinners didn't win the big prize, it did take Best Original Screenplay and Best Casting/Acting Ensemble. I suspect the race between One Battle and Sinners is close, and will remain close.

All the aforementioned categories experienced some slight shuffling. However, the results in another one might have, one, bumped a contender out of their category, and two, made another potential nominee a serious threat to win. For much of the season, Stellan Skarsgård appeared to be the clear #1 contender in Best Supporting Actor with a pair of One Battle stars coming in right behind, Sean Penn and Benecio del Toro. Then there's Paul Mescal for Hamnet, a very likely nominee since Hamnet celebrated its world premiere at the Telluride Film Festival in August. Jacob Elordi, however, has been playing the long game, and his stock has been rising steadily each step of the way. Last night's CCA win not only makes him feel like a sure-fire Oscar nominee, but it also makes him a real threat to win. And unfortunately, for Jay Kelly, a quiet night at the Critics Choice Awards makes the film a less likely Oscar contender in a number of categories, including Best Supporting Actor.

We'll see how things evolve yet again after the Actor Awards nominations are unveiled on Wednesday, January 7 and the Golden Globes take place on Sunday, January 11.

BEST PICTURE

Current Frontrunner: One Battle After Another

Also in Contention: Wicked: For Good, Jay Kelly

BEST DIRECTOR

Current Frontrunner: Paul Thomas Anderson

Also in Contention: Guillermo del Toro for Frankenstein, Josh Safdie for Marty Supreme

BEST ACTRESS

Current Frontrunner: Jessie Buckley

Also in Contention: Chase Infiniti for One Battle After Another, Cynthia Erivo for Wicked: For Good

BEST ACTOR

Current Frontrunner: Timothée Chalamet

Also in Contention: Ethan Hawke for Blue Moon

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Current Frontrunner: Amy Madigan

Also in Contention: Wunmi Mosaku for Sinners

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Current Frontrunner: Stellan Skarsgård

Also in Contention: Adam Sandler for Jay Kelly

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Current Frontrunner: KPop Demon Hunters

Also in Contention: In Your Dreams, Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Current Frontrunner: Sinners

Also in Contention: Weapons, Jay Kelly

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Current Frontrunner: One Battle After Another

Also in Contention: Frankenstein

BEST CASTING

Current Frontrunner: Sinners

Also in Contention: Sentimental Value, Frankenstein, Sirât