Oscar Predictions: Costume Design — The Memorable Fits of ‘Sinners’ and ‘Frankenstein’ Are Pulling Ahead in the Race

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety chief awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

Oscars Best Costume Design Commentary (Updated Jan. 5, 2026): The best costume design race is beginning to crystallize, with a small cluster of films emerging as clear favorites among the Academy’s Costume Designers Branch.

At the moment, Critics Choice winner “Frankenstein” (Kate Hawley), “Sinners” (two-time winner Ruth E. Carter) and “Wicked: For Good” (last year’s winner Paul Tazewell) look like the safest bets, joined by “Hamnet” (Malgosia Turzanska, who also has “Train Dreams”), which continues to climb the charts as its overall profile strengthens. Each offers a distinct but branch-friendly appeal. Some from gothic re-imaginings and mythic world-building while others have meticulously rendered period detail, which is the kind of work costume designers have historically rallied behind.

With the BAFTA longlist set to be unveiled on Jan. 9 (which will include 10 titles), the assumption is that at least four of those titles will hold firm. That likely leaves only one or two nomination slots in play, setting up a familiar awards-season dilemma: legacy versus global sensibility. A legend like Colleen Atwood remains a presence, particularly with two high-profile contenders in “One Battle After Another” and “Kiss of the Spider Woman,” either of which could benefit from name recognition and career-long goodwill. On the international front, “Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale,” with costumes by Anna Mary Scott Robbins, represents the kind of refined, period-authentic craftsmanship BAFTA voters often embrace, while Consolata Boyle’s work on the period drama “Blue Moon” could appeal to Academy voters looking to honor classical elegance executed at the highest level.

In other news, the 28th Costume Designers Guild Awards added another data point to the conversation. Titles such as “One Battle After Another,” “Weapons,” “Avatar: Fire and Ash” and “Bugonia” all landed noms. Notably absent, however, was “The Testament of Ann Lee,” a reminder that CDG recognition, while influential, is not a prerequisite for Oscar success. The Academy has a long history of singling out a film that failed to register with the guild or didn’t get seen in time.

NOTE: All titles, release dates, studios and listed and credited artisans are subject to change and are ultimately determined by the Academy.