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Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety chief awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Oscars Commentary (Updated: Jan. 5, 2026): Happy New Year!
We’re back, and it’s already hot on the awards circuit. As the phase one period for Oscar nominations enters its final, volatile stretch, a few unexpected titles are beginning to press against what once looked like a locked best picture lineup.
Richard Linklater’s “Blue Moon” from Sony Pictures Classics continues to build serious word of mouth and is quietly building a deep bench of admirers behind the scenes. To the point that a surprise best picture nomination no longer feels far-fetched. The film’s quiet momentum — the kind that grows through admiration rather than spectacle — is exactly how late-breaking contenders have slipped into the lineup in the past.
Joseph Kosinski’s “F1,” fresh off two major wins at the Critics Choice Awards, is also testing the edges of the race. There is almost always room for what might be called a “normal people” movie — accessible, star-driven and emotionally legible — in the best picture field. Think “The Blind Side” or “Top Gun: Maverick.” The Apple studios high-octane racing drama starring Brad Pitt fits that mold, but its viability likely hinges on securing a nomination from the Producers Guild of America, which announces Friday.
How many international feature films will be in best picture remains another open question, particularly among Neon’s contenders. Joachim Trier’s Norwegian drama “Sentimental Value” feels solidly positioned, but whether the Academy embraces more than one non-English-language film is still unclear. Kleber Mendonça Filho’s Brazilian thriller and Critics Choice winner “The Secret Agent,” alongside Jafar Panahi’s “It Was Just an Accident,” are both in play, though space feels very limited.
Elsewhere, Guillermo del Toro’s “Frankenstein” is gathering momentum across categories. Jacob Elordi’s surprise Critics Choice win for supporting actor as the Creature has helped reposition the film as more than a technical showcase, giving it renewed credibility in the above-the-line conversations.
Over the weekend, the Palm Springs International Film Awards gala delivered its annual blend of star power. Next on the awards docket are SAG noms on Wednesday, Golden Globes Awards arriving Sunday night and Oscar nomination voting opening Monday morning.
At the Critics Choice Awards, Paul Thomas Anderson’s “One Battle After Another” swept best picture, director and adapted screenplay. The acting winners included Timothee Chalamet (“Marty Supreme”), Jessie Buckley (“Hamnet”), Elordi and Amy Madigan (“Weapons”). Whether or not they can all translate remains to be seen.
Still, the race is far from unsettled. Ryan Coogler’s “Sinners,” which co-led all films with four wins at CCA, could be a late-breaking spoiler, if the coalition remains intact.
This week’s updated predictions are below.
Top 5 projected Oscar nomination leaders (films):
Top 5 projected Oscar nomination leaders (studios):
*** = PREDICTED WINNER
(All predicted nominees listed below are in alphabetical order)
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Best Picture
Image Credit: Credit: Sabrina Lantos
“Blue Moon” (Sony Pictures Classics)
“F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.)
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
“It Was Just an Accident” (Neon)
“Marty Supreme” (A24)
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) ***
“Sentimental Value” (Neon)
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“Train Dreams” (Netflix) -
Director
Image Credit: Ken Woroner/Netflix
Paul Thomas Anderson ***
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Ryan Coogler
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Guillermo Del Toro
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
Jafar Panahi
“It Was Just an Accident” (Neon)
Chloé Zhao
“Hamnet” (Focus Features) -
Actor
Image Credit: Courtesy Everett Collection
Timothée Chalamet
“Marty Supreme” (A24)
Leonardo DiCaprio
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Ethan Hawke ***
“Blue Moon” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Michael B. Jordan
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Wagner Moura
“The Secret Agent” (Neon) -
Actress
Image Credit: Courtesy of Focus Features
Jessie Buckley ***
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Rose Byrne
“If I Had Legs I’d Kick You” (A24)
Kate Hudson
“Song Sung Blue” (Focus Features)
Chase Infiniti
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Renate Reinsve
“Sentimental Value” (Neon) -
Supporting Actor
Image Credit: Focus Features
Benicio Del Toro
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Jacob Elordi
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
Paul Mescal
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Sean Penn
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Stellan Skarsgård ***
“Sentimental Value” (Neon) -
Supporting Actress
Image Credit: Quantrell Colbert
Elle Fanning
“Sentimental Value” (Neon)
Ariana Grande
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas ***
“Sentimental Value” (Neon)
Amy Madigan
“Weapons” (Warner Bros.)
Teyana Taylor
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) -
Original Screenplay
Image Credit: Courtesy of Warner Bros. Picture
“Blue Moon” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Robert Kaplow
“It Was Just an Accident” (Neon)
Jafar Panahi
“Marty Supreme” (A24)
Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie
“Sentimental Value” (Neon)
Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) ***
Ryan Coogler -
Adapted Screenplay
Image Credit: Courtesy of Netflix
“Bugonia” (Focus Features)
Will Tracy
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
Guillermo Del Toro
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Maggie O’Farrell and Chloé Zhao
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) ***
Paul Thomas Anderson
“Train Dreams” (Netflix)
Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar -
Casting
Image Credit: Neon
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Nina Gold
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Cassandra Kulukundis
“Sentimental Value” (Neon)
Yngvill Kolset Haga and Avy Kaufman
“Sirât” (Neon)
Nadia Acimi, Luis Bertolo and Erika Boulic
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) ***
Francine Maisler -
Animated Feature
Image Credit: Netflix
“Arco” (Neon)
Ugo Bienvenu, Félix de Givry, Sophia Mas, Natalie Portman
“Elio” (Pixar)
Mary Alice Drumm, Adrian Molina, Madelina Sharafian, Domee Shi
“KPop Demon Hunters” (Netflix) ***
Chris Appelhans, Maggie Kang, Michelle L.M. Wong
“Little Amélie or the Character of Rain” (GKids)
Claire LaCombe, Edwina Liard, Henri Magalon, Nidia Santiago, Maïlys Vallade
“Zootopia 2” (Walt Disney Pictures)
Jared Bush, Byron Howard, Yvett Merino -
Production Design
Image Credit: Giles Keyte/Universal Pictures
“Frankenstein” (Netflix) ***
Tamara Deverell, Shane Vieau
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Fiona Crombie, Alice Felton
“Marty Supreme” (A24)
Jack Fisk, Adam Willis
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Hannah Bleachler, Monique Champagne
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Nathan Crowley, Lee Sandales -
Cinematography
Image Credit: Courtesy of Warner Bros. Pictures
“F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.)
Claudio Miranda
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Łukasz Żal
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Michael Bauman
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) ***
Autumn Durald Arkapaw
“Train Dreams” (Netflix)
Adolpho Veloso -
Costume Design
Image Credit: Focus Features
“Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale” (Focus Features)
Anna Mary Scott Robbins
“Frankenstein” (Netflix) ***
Kate Hawley
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Malgosia Turzanska
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Ruth E. Carter
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Paul Tazewell -
Film Editing
Image Credit: ©Warner Bros/Courtesy Everett Collection
“F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.)
Stephen Mirrione
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Affonso Gonçalves and Chloé Zhao
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) ***
Andy Jurgensen
“Sentimental Value” (Neon)
Olivier Bugge Coutté
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Michael P. ShawverOscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Makeup and Hairstyling
Image Credit: Courtesy of Warner Bros
“The Alto Knights” (Warner Bros.)
Lori Hicks, Richard Redlefsen
“Frankenstein” (Netflix) ***
Cliona Furey, Mike Hill, Jordan Samuel
“The Smashing Machine” (A24)
Felix Fox, Kazu Hiro, Mia Neal
“The Ugly Stepsister” (IFC)
Thomas Foldberg, Anne Cathrine Sauerberg
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Laura Blount, Mark Coulier, Frances HannonOscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Sound
Image Credit: Warner Bros.
“F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.)
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) ***
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“Sirât” (Neon)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures) -
Visual Effects
Image Credit: ©20th Century Studios/Courtesy Everett Collection
“Avatar: Fire and Ash” (20th Century Studios) ***
“F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.)
“Superman” (Warner Bros.)
“Tron: Ares” (20th Century Studios)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Original Score
Image Credit: Courtesy Everett Collection
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
Alexandre Desplat
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Max Richter
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Jonny Greenwood
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) ***
Ludwig Göransson
“Sirāt” (Neon)
Kangding Ray -
Original Song
Image Credit: ©Apple TV/Courtesy Everett Coll
“Come See Me in the Good Light” (Apple Original Films)
“Salt Then Sour Then Sweet” by Sara Bareilles, Brandi Carlile and Andrea Gibson
“Diane Warren: Relentless” (Greenwich Entertainment)
“Dear Me” by Diane Warren
“KPop Demon Hunters” (Netflix) ***
“Golden” by EJAE and Mark Sonnenblick
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“I Lied to You” by Ludwig Göransson and Raphael Saadiq
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
“The Girl in the Bubble” by Stephen Schwartz -
Documentary Feature
Image Credit: Brittany Shyne
“The Alabama Solution” (HBO Documentary Films)
Andrew Jarecki, Charlotte Kaufman, Page Marsella
“Cutting Through Rocks” (Autlook Films)
Mohammadreza Eyni, Sara Khaki
“The Perfect Neighbor” (Netflix) ***
Sam Bisbeem Geeta Gandbhir, Alisa Payne
“Seeds” (Interior Films)
Brittany Shyne, Sabrina Schmidt Gordon, Danielle Varga
“2000 Meters to Andriivka” (PBS)
Raney Aronson, Mstyslav Chernov, Michelle Mizner -
International Feature
Image Credit: Courtesy Everett Collection
“It Was Just an Accident” from France (Neon) ***
dir. Jafar Panahi
“The Secret Agent” from Brazil (Neon)
dir. Kleber Mendonça Filho
“Sentimental Value” from Norway (Neon)
dir. Joachim Trier
“Sirāt” from Spain (Neon)
dir. Oliver Laxe
“The Voice of Hind Rajab” from Tunisia (Willa)
dir. Kaouther Ben Hania -
Animated Short
“Cardboard” (Locksmith Animation)
“Éiru” (GKids) ***
“Hurikán” (AEON Production)
“The Night Boots” (Am Stram Gram)
“The Quinta’s Ghost” (Illusorium Films)Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Documentary Short
Image Credit: ©Netflix/Courtesy Everett Collection
“All the Empty Rooms” (Netflix) ***
“All the Walls Came Down” (Interloper Films)
“Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud” (HBO Documentary Films)
“Chasing Time” (Exposure Labs)
“The Devil is Busy” (HBO Documentary Films)Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
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Live Action Short
Image Credit: The New Yorker
“The Boy with White Skin” (Manifest)
“Extremist” (The New Yorker)
“Rock, Paper, Scissors” (National Film and Television School)
“The Singers” (Highway West Entertainment)
“Two People Exchanging Saliva” (The New Yorker) ***Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon
English (US) ·