Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actress — No Consensus Yet, Just a Whole Lot of Movement

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety chief awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

Oscars Best Supporting Actress Commentary (Updated Jan. 9, 2026): I’m not going to lie to you all. This is the race that is keeping me up at night, trying to figure out which five women make the ultimate lineup.

The Actor Awards nominations offered an early snapshot of where industry voters are consolidating, naming surprise nominee Odessa A’zion (“Marty Supreme”), Ariana Grande (“Wicked: For Good”), Amy Madigan (“Weapons”), Wunmi Mosaku (“Sinners”) and Teyana Taylor (“One Battle After Another”). That lineup immediately framed the category as a blend of breakouts, veterans and roles buoyed by major studio contenders.

BAFTA’s shortlist expanded the conversation, adding international and prestige-weighted names such as Brenda Blethyn (“Dragonfly”), Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas (“Sentimental Value”), Carey Mulligan (“The Ballad of Wallis Island”), Gwyneth Paltrow (“Marty Supreme”) and Emily Watson (“Hamnet”), while reaffirming support for A’zion, Grande, Madigan, Mosaku and Taylor.

At the Critics Choice Awards, Amy Madigan emerged with the supporting actress win for “Weapons,” a result that carries particular significance, and shows we should be taking the veteran performer seriously in the race. In addition, “Weapons” landed on the Producers Guild of America’s list for best picture, suggesting broader support and positioning Madigan’s film as a possibility to garner more noms, such as best picture or original screenplay, which she will need if she intends to win the category.

The Golden Globes, which announce winners on Sunday, could shake it all up (yet again). Nominees include Emily Blunt (“The Smashing Machine”), Elle Fanning (“Sentimental Value”), Ariana Grande (“Wicked: For Good”), Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas (“Sentimental Value”), Madigan (“Weapons”) and Taylor (“One Battle After Another”). Despite a SAG snub, we think Lilleaas might surprise there, showing off the strength of “Sentimental Value” with international groups.

If you’re keeping count, only three women have landed with all four major acting groups: the musically inclined Grande, the genre-defying Madigan and the unforgettable Taylor. We’ll see how it all shakes out by the week’s end.

Nominations voting will begin Monday, Jan. 12, and conclude Friday, Jan. 16. Official nominations for the 98th Academy Awards will be revealed Thursday, Jan. 22. The 98th Academy Awards will take place Sunday, March 15, at the Dolby Theatre and will be televised live on ABC in more than 200 territories worldwide.