Oscar Predictions: Best Director — Can International Filmmakers Crack the Final Five?

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety chief awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

Oscars Best Director Commentary (Updated Jan. 9, 2026): The Directors Guild of America unveiled its nominees for the DGA Awards with recognition for: Paul Thomas Anderson (“One Battle After Another”), Ryan Coogler (“Sinners”), Guillermo Del Toro (“Frankenstein”), Joachim Trier (“Sentimental Value”) and Chloé Zhao (“Hamnet”).

Coogler becomes only the fifth Black director ever recognized by the DGA and the first since Spike Lee earned a nomination for “BlacKkKlansman” (2018). Previous Black nominees include Jordan Peele (“Get Out”), Barry Jenkins (“Moonlight”) and Lee Daniels (“Precious”). Notably, no Black filmmaker has ever won the DGA’s top directing prize.

Zhao, meanwhile, continues to make her own history. The Oscar winner for “Nomadland” (2020) became the third woman — and the first Asian woman — to win the DGA Award and now joins Jane Campion, Kathryn Bigelow and Greta Gerwig as the only women to earn multiple DGA nominations. In total, just 12 women have ever been nominated in the category. Zhao is also the first female POC to be nominated a second time.

A key question looming over the best director race is how many filmmakers behind non-English language films will ultimately make the Academy’s final five. In each of the past five years, the Oscars have included at least one director of a predominantly non-English language title, from Jacques Audiard for “Emilia Perez” and Jonathan Glazer for “The Zone of Interest” to Justine Triet for “Anatomy of a Fall,” Ryusuke Hamaguchi for “Drive My Car” and Thomas Vinterberg for “Another Round.”

Both SAG-AFTRA and the Directors Guild of America shut out international cinema entirely in their top categories. Are they splitting the votes?

The British Academy of Film and Television Arts longlist for best director includes Yorgos Lanthimos for “Bugonia,” Lynne Ramsay for “Die My Love,” Chloé Zhao for “Hamnet,” Kathryn Bigelow for “A House of Dynamite,” Josh Safdie for “Marty Supreme,” Paul Thomas Anderson for “One Battle After Another,” Hikari for “Rental Family,” Joachim Trier for “Sentimental Value,” Ryan Coogler for “Sinners” and Kaouther Ben Hania for “The Voice of Hind Rajab.” Six filmmakers will ultimately be nominated, but those won’t be known until Jan. 27, five days after the Oscar nominations are announced.

At the Critics Choice Awards, Anderson claimed the best director prize, prevailing over fellow nominees Coogler, del Toro, Safdie, Trier and Zhao.

Nominations voting will begin Monday, Jan. 12, and conclude Friday, Jan. 16. Official nominations for the 98th Academy Awards will be revealed Thursday, Jan. 22. The 98th Academy Awards will take place Sunday, March 15, at the Dolby Theatre and will be televised live on ABC in more than 200 territories worldwide.