Oscar Predictions: Best Casting — How Do You Define a Category Without a Precedent?

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety chief awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

Oscars Best Casting Commentary (Updated Jan. 9, 2026): Best casting enters the Oscar ballot this year as a brand-new category, and fittingly, it arrives without a rigid precedent, forcing voters and prognosticators alike to define what excellence looks like in real time. Is it star power? Ensemble cohesion? Finding a discovery? Or the invisible architecture that allows a film’s themes to land through faces we instantly believe?

The Academy will ultimately select five nominees from the 10 shortlisted, which already hints at where momentum may form. Titles such as “Sinners” (Francine Maisler), “Frankenstein” (Robin D. Cook), “Marty Supreme” (Jennifer Venditti), “One Battle After Another” (Cassandra Kulukundis), “Wicked: For Good” (Tiffany Little Canfield and Bernard Telsey), “Weapons” (Allison Jones), “Sentimental Value” (Yngvill Kolset Haga and Avy Kaufman), “Hamnet” (Nina Gold), “Sirât” (Nadia Acimi, Luis Bertolo and Erika Boulic) and “The Secret Agent” (Gabriel Domingues) collectively spanning blockbusters, dramas and international cinema.

The strongest early industry signal comes from the Artios Awards, voted on by the Casting Society itself. Several films recur across multiple Artios categories, suggesting consensus within the profession. “Sinners,” “Frankenstein,” “Marty Supreme,” “Hamnet” and “Wicked: For Good” all landed nominations in the big-budget drama or comedy fields. That overlap is notable, as it mirrors the Academy shortlist more closely than any other precursor.

BAFTA’s casting longlist further reinforces that picture, citing “Frankenstein,” “Hamnet,” “Marty Supreme,” “One Battle After Another,” “Pillion,” “Sentimental Value,” “Sinners” and “Sirât,” along with “A House of Dynamite” and “I Swear.” The alignment between BAFTA and the Academy shortlist is unusually strong for a first-year category, suggesting a shared international understanding of casting?

If a narrative is emerging, it favors films whose casts feel inseparable from their identities. “Sinners” (which won Critics Choice) stands out for its blend of star presence and ensemble texture. The rest is your best guess.

Nominations voting will begin Monday, Jan. 12, and conclude Friday, Jan. 16. Official nominations for the 98th Academy Awards will be revealed Thursday, Jan. 22. The 98th Academy Awards will take place Sunday, March 15, at the Dolby Theatre and will be televised live on ABC in more than 200 territories worldwide.