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Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety chief awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Oscars Best Adapted Screenplay Commentary (Updated Jan. 9, 2026): Is this one all figured out, or is there room for a surprise or two?
BAFTA’s longlist established the widest view of the field, naming “28 Years Later,” “The Ballad of Wallis Island,” “Bugonia,” “Frankenstein,” “Hamnet,” “Nuremberg,” “One Battle After Another,” “Pillion,” “Train Dreams” and “Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery.”
The clearest industry indicator so far comes from the USC Scripter Awards, which traditionally align closely with the Academy’s writers branch. Their nominations singled out Guillermo del Toro for Frankenstein (adapted from Mary Shelley), Chloé Zhao and Maggie O’Farrell for Hamnet, Paul Thomas Anderson for One Battle After Another (from Thomas Pynchon’s “Vineland”), and Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar for Train Dreams (from Denis Johnson). That lineup overlaps heavily with both BAFTA and Critics Choice, reinforcing a relatively tight core of contenders.
Critics Choice added some further clarity. Nominees included “One Battle After Another,” “Train Dreams,” No Other Choice, “Frankenstein,” “Bugonia” and “Hamnet,” with “One Battle After Another” emerging as the winner. That victory matters. Historically, adapted screenplay winners at Critics Choice often match up with the Academy, despite no overlap in the memberships.
What complicates the picture is timing. Writers Guild Award nominations and final BAFTA nominations will not be announced until after Oscar nominations are revealed, leaving voters without the usual consensus-building markers. In their absence, literary-forward awards like Scripter takes on added weight, and films that consistently show up across multiple, unrelated bodies gain an advantage by default.
As it stands, “One Battle After Another” holds the clearest edge.
Nominations voting will begin Monday, Jan. 12, and conclude Friday, Jan. 16. Official nominations for the 98th Academy Awards will be revealed Thursday, Jan. 22. The 98th Academy Awards will take place Sunday, March 15, at the Dolby Theatre and will be televised live on ABC in more than 200 territories worldwide.
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Image Credit: Courtesy of Netflix
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Image Credit: "The Chronology of Water" (Courtesy of CG Cinema)
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Eligible Titles (Adapted Screenplay)
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