On the Awards Train, Momentum Is the Key to Winning Oscars

In the Oscar race, momentum is everything. “One Battle After Another” has it.

On Sunday night, Paul Thomas Anderson’s latest took home three top prizes (read the full Critics Choice winners list here) including Picture, Director, and Adapted Screenplay, but didn’t sweep the table: Oscar winner Leonardo DiCaprio (“The Revenant”) lost to Timothée Chalamet star of Josh Safdie’s holiday hit “Marty Supreme,” marking the movie’s only win of the night. Chalamet wore a conservative suit and tie and humbly thanked his fellow nominees, a dramatic shift in tone for the actor, who has tended toward the grandiose of late.

Also making a strong showing at the CCAs was another Warner Bros. movie, “Sinners,” with four wins, for Original Screenplay (Ryan Coogler), Casting Director Francine Maisler, Ludwig Göransson for Original Score, and Young Actor Miles Caton (not an Oscar category). The other three could repeat at the Oscars.

Another surprise win for Warners was Supporting Actress Amy Madigan for horror sleeper “Weapons.” She beat out frontrunner Ariana Grande in Universal’s “Wicked: For Good,” which went home empty-handed, along with “Sentimental Value,” whose two supporting actresses may have knocked each other out, along with “One Battle After Another” supporting nominees Sean Penn and Benicio del Toro.

In a major surprise, “Frankenstein” star Jacob Elordi nabbed the Supporting Actor win, a sign of strength for both the movie and his work in it, which also picked up craft nominations for production design, costume design, and hair and makeup. “Frankenstein” was expected to duke it out in the Oscar craft categories with “Sinners,” but landing an acting CCA win was not in the bag.

Another big winner, as expected, was Jessie Buckley for her titanic performance as a grieving mother in Chloé Zhao’s “Hamnet.” Buckley will likely sweep the next rounds of awards ahead of her inevitable win on Oscar night. I was sitting at the Focus Features table, where Jacobi Jupe’s screen parents Mescal and Buckley consoled him after he lost Best Young Actor, the first award of the night.

When Buckley won Best Actress, her words brought many at the table, including Zhao and Jupe, to tears. “Chloé Zhao, you have the power of telling a story and the journey that you can go on to touch the deepest parts of what it is to be alive,” she said.

The ‘Hamnet’ family

Among the Netflix entries, animated feature and song winner “KPop Demon Hunters” is the clear frontrunner in those Oscar categories, and likely Best Picture contender “Train Dreams” landed a cinematography win. Netflix’s “Jay Kelly” was shut out, however.

Steady as they go is Brazil’s “The Secret Agent,” which won Best Foreign Language Film (announced before the ceremony even kicked off), and could also land Best Picture, Actor (Wagner Moura) and Best International Feature on Oscar nominations morning.

The 600 Critics Choice voters, who range across North America and abroad, often predict the Oscar winners, but not infallibly. Last year, “Anora” won just one CCA prize, but it was the one you want: Best Picture. It went on to collect five Oscars, including Best Picture, Director, Original Screenplay, Actress, and Editing. Best Actor Adrien Brody (“The Brutalist”) repeated at the Oscars, along with “Conclave” Best Adapted Screenplay winner Peter Straughan, as did “Emilia Perez” Supporting Actress Zoe Saldana and Supporting Actor Kieran Culkin for “A Real Pain.” 

But while body horror flick “The Substance” picked up three CCA wins, for Actress Demi Moore, Hair & Makeup, and Original Screenplay, at the Oscars only Hair & Makeup took the win.

The CCA momentum could impact the Oscar nominations voting, which begin on January 12 and ends on January 16 (nominations are announced the morning of January 22), and so will the SAG Actors Awards nominations announcement on Wednesday.

At the CCAs

There’s plenty of road ahead. The Globes will weigh in next week, where the Musical/Comedy and Drama categories change up the competition. DiCaprio still has a chance to win there, at SAG’s Actor Awards and the BAFTAs, where “Hamnet” stars Buckley and Mescal could do well. “Jay Kelly” Supporting Actor Adam Sandler could return to the winner’s circle with the Actors Awards and BAFTA.

But Elordi and the beloved Madigan, who lost her and husband Ed Harris’ Malibu home in the Palisades fire, now have wind in their sails. “Frankenstein” is hugely popular and Elordi makes a charming Oscar campaigner. And “One Battle After Another” remains formidable.