Lost in Translation: Guilds Ignored Global Cinema’s Banner Year – Will the Oscars Correct It?

There is a quiet contradiction bubbling up this Oscar season, but you might need subtitles to understand it.

Coming off nominations for The Actor Awards and Directors Guild of America, social media and industry voices are becoming vocal about the fact that despite a banner year for non-English language filmmaking, the major guilds have been ignoring these achievements.

The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences has spent the last decade globalizing — expanding to over 11,000 members across 60 countries. That transformation has shown up on ballots. Last year, it elevated Fernanda Torres to a best actress nomination for the Brazilian drama “I’m Still Here,” which was then embraced in best picture. The year prior, two non-English language movies were recognized for the first time: the French legal thriller “Anatomy of a Fall” and the timely U.K. Holocaust German-language drama “The Zone of Interest.”

Meanwhile, America’s guilds remain locked in a narrower vision. This week, SAG-AFTRA and the DGA shut out international cinema entirely. No foreign-language performances. No international directors in the main best director category.

Joachim Trier’s Norwegian family drama “Sentimental Value,” Park Chan-wook’s South Korean black comedy “No Other Choice,” Oliver Laxe’s Spanish rave thriller “Sirât,” Kleber Mendonça Filho’s Brazilian political thriller “The Secret Agent” and Jafar Panahi’s Palme d’Or winner “It Was Just an Accident” were all passed over. And those are just the high-profile titles.

There’s also Kaouther Ben Hania’s true story of a 5-year-old Palestinian girl being killed in “The Voice of Hind Rajab,” Neeraj Ghaywan’s Indian coming-of-age story “Homebound,” Dolores Fonzi’s Argentine legal drama “Belén,” Lee Sang-il’s Japanese historical wonder “Kokuho” and more. However, Hasan Hadi was recognized in the first-time director DGA category for his Iraqi film “The President’s Cake.”

Many of these auteurs have dominated critical year-end lists and shaped conversations about cinema’s direction. Yet when guild voters spoke, they spoke only in English.

On one side sits a globalized Academy — broader, younger, more international than at any point in its history — whose evolving membership has embraced a wide spectrum of cinematic voices. On the other sit America’s guilds, shaped by domestic members, whose nominations this week suggested a far narrower definition of what counts as prestige filmmaking.

This is not new.

Over the past decade, AMPAS has undergone a fundamental transformation. Its total membership now stands at more than 11,000, with 55% of the most recent invitees being international, with 41% identifying as women and 45% coming from underrepresented racial or ethnic communities.

In a conversation with an Academy voter, when asked about the matter, they posited that some in Hollywood may be focusing more on their own country. “It’s a different time, and it’s a different administration,” the anonymous AMPAS member tells Variety. “Hollywood, and the Academy, has never been as liberal as all conservative right-wingers and conspiracy theorists want you to believe. I talk with these people every day, and there’s a sense they want to keep it all in America.”

The guilds, by contrast, remain structurally narrower — not only in who votes, but in how their ecosystems reward familiarity.

The SAG Awards and the DGA are American institutions first, global arbiters second. Their rosters skew heavily domestic, since membership generally requires authorization to work in the U.S.

The DGA, to its credit, has long articulated a mission rooted in inclusion. Its diversity initiatives date back to the establishment of the Women’s Steering Committee in 1979 and its current mission statement explicitly frames storytelling as a global enterprise. The DGA can point to genuine progress — this year’s lineup marks only the second time a majority of nominees represent underrepresented communities, echoing a pivotal 2017 slate. Guillermo del Toro’s return with his “Frankenstein” nomination signals continuity.

The Oscars have recognized what the guilds have not: The Oscar race to recognize cinema’s greatest achievements is no longer a single lane. It’s a collision point where international films, American independents and studio prestige converge. One institution has adjusted to that reality. The others are lagging behind, still treating global cinema as supplemental rather than central.

This matters because visibility creates opportunity. When guilds ignore entire categories of achievement, they don’t just fail to predict; they actively narrow the conversation about what constitutes excellence.

If American guilds want to remain culturally relevant, they need to diversify more than their mission statements. They need to challenge their cultural assumptions. The future of the Oscars is already multilingual, borderless and already redefining excellence.

What makes the moment especially striking is how the Oscar math is diverging from the signals coming out of the guilds — and how narrowly diversity is often framed in that conversation. Diversity is a wider concept — it’s not limited to ethnicity or race, or with films made outside the English language. It can also look like a Black filmmaker standing on the brink of unprecedented institutional recognition. Ryan Coogler’s “Sinners” is currently projected to earn 15 Oscar nominations, a total that would surpass the Academy’s all-time record held by “All About Eve,” “Titanic” and “La La Land.”

2025 didn’t lack worthy global cinema. It may just lack institutions willing to catch up.

This week’s Oscar predictions are below.

*** = PREDICTED WINNER
(All predicted nominees below are in alphabetical order)

Oscars Predictions Tracking
(Jan. 8, 2026)

Best Picture
“Blue Moon” (Sony Pictures Classics)
“Bugonia” (Focus Features)
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
“Hamnet” (Focus Features)
“It Was Just an Accident” (Neon)
“Marty Supreme” (A24)
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
“Sentimental Value” (Neon)
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) ***
“Train Dreams” (Netflix)

Director
Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) ***
Ryan Coogler, “Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Guillermo Del Toro, “Frankenstein” (Netflix)
Jafar Panahi, “It Was Just an Accident” (Neon)
Chloé Zhao, “Hamnet” (Focus Features)

Actor
Timothée Chalamet, “Marty Supreme” (A24)
Leonardo DiCaprio, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Ethan Hawke, “Blue Moon” (Sony Pictures Classics) ***
Michael B. Jordan, “Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Wagner Moura, “The Secret Agent” (Neon)

Actress
Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet” (Focus Features) ***
Rose Byrne, “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You” (A24)
Kate Hudson, “Song Sung Blue” (Focus Features)
Chase Infiniti, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Renate Reinsve, “Sentimental Value” (Neon)

Supporting Actor
Benicio Del Toro, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Jacob Elordi, “Frankenstein” (Netflix)
Paul Mescal, “Hamnet” (Focus Features)
Sean Penn, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Stellan Skarsgård, “Sentimental Value” (Neon) ***

Supporting Actress
Ariana Grande, “Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, “Sentimental Value” (Neon)
Amy Madigan, “Weapons” (Warner Bros.) ***
Wunmi Mosaku, “Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Teyana Taylor, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)

Original Screenplay
“Blue Moon” (Sony Pictures Classics) — Robert Kaplow
“It Was Just an Accident” (Neon) — Jafar Panahi
“Marty Supreme” (A24) — Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie
“Sentimental Value” (Neon) — Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) — Ryan Coogler ***

Adapted Screenplay
“Bugonia” (Focus Features) — Will Tracy
“Frankenstein” (Netflix) — Guillermo Del Toro
“Hamnet” (Focus Features) — Chloé Zhao
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) — Paul Thomas Anderson
“Train Dreams” (Netflix) — Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar ***

Casting
“Frankenstein” (Netflix) — Robin D. Cook
“Marty Supreme” (A24) — Jennifer Venditti
“The Secret Agent” (Neon) — Gabriel Domingues
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) — Francine Maisler ***
“Weapons” (Warner Bros.) — Allison Jones

Animated Feature
“Arco” (Neon)
“Elio” (Pixar)
“KPop Demon Hunters” (Netflix)
“Little Amélie or the Character of Rain” (GKids)
“Zootopia 2” (Walt Disney Pictures) ***

Production Design
“Frankenstein” (Netflix) — Tamara Deverell and Shane Vieau ***
“Hamnet” (Focus Features) — Fiona Crombie and Alice Felton
“Marty Supreme” (A24) — Jack Fisk and Adam Willis
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) — Hannah Bleachler and Monique Champagne
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures) — Nathan Crowley and Lee Sandales

Cinematography
“Frankenstein” (Netflix) — Darius Khondji
“Hamnet” (Focus Features) — Łukasz Żal
“One Battle after Another” (Warner Bros.) — Michael Bauman
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) — Autumn Durald Arkapaw ***
“Train Dreams” (Netflix) — Adolpho Veloso

Costume Design
“Frankenstein” (Netflix) — Kate Hawley
“Hamnet” (Focus Features) — Malgosia Turzanska
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) — Colleen Atwood
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) — Ruth E. Carter ***
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures) — Paul Tazewell

Film Editing
“F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.) — Stephen Mirrione
“Frankenstein” (Netflix) — Evan Schiff
“Marty Supreme” (A24) — Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) — Andy Jurgensen ***
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) — Michael P. Shawver

Makeup and Hairstyling
“Frankenstein” (Netflix) — Cliona Furey, Mike Hill, Jordan Samuel, ***
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) — Heba Thorisdottir, Ahou Mofid, Arjen Tuiten
“The Smashing Machine” (A24) — Felix Fox, Kazu Hiro, Mia Neal
“The Ugly Stepsister” (IFC) — Thomas Foldberg, Anne Cathrine Sauerberg
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures) — Laura Blount, Mark Coulier, Frances Hannon

Sound
“F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.)
“One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.) ***
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“Sirât” (Neon)
“Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)

Visual Effects
“Avatar: Fire and Ash” (20th Century Studios) ***
“F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.)
“Frankenstein” (Netflix)
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
“Superman” (DC Studios)

Original Score
“Frankenstein” (Netflix) — Alexandre Desplat
“Hamnet” (Focus Features) — Max Richter
“One Battle after Another” (Warner Bros.) — Jonny Greenwood
“Sinners” (Warner Bros.) — Ludwig Göransson ***
“Sirât” (Neon) — Kangding Ray

Original Song
“Dear Me” from “Diane Warren: Relentless” (Greenwich Entertainment) — Diane Warren
“Golden” from “KPop Demon Hunters” (Netflix) — EJAE and Mark Sonnenblick ***
“Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” from “Sinners” (Warner Bros.) — Miles Caton, Ludwig Göransson and Alice Smith
“I Lied To You” from “Sinners” (Warner Bros.) — Ludwig Göransson and Raphael Saadiq
“Train Dreams” from “Train Dreams” (Netflix) — Nick Cave and Bryce Dessner

Documentary Feature
“The Alabama Solution” (HBO Documentary Films)
“Cutting Through Rocks” (Autlook Films)
“The Perfect Neighbor” (Netflix) ***
“Seeds” (Interior Films)
“2000 Meters to Andriivka” (PBS)

International Feature
“It Was Just an Accident” from France (Neon) ***
“Kokuho” from Japan (GKids)
“The Secret Agent” from Brazil (Neon)
“Sentimental Value” from Norway (Neon)
“The Voice of Hind Rajab” from Tunisia (Willa)

Animated Short
“Cardboard” (Locksmith Animation) — dir. J.P. Vine
“Éiru” (GKids) — dir. Giovanna Ferrari ***
“Hurikán” (AEON Production) — dir. Jan Saska
“The Quinta’s Ghost” (Illusorium Films) — dir. James A. Castillo
“The Shyness of Trees” (Gobelins, l’Ecole de l’Image) — dir. Sofiia Chuikovska, Loïck Du Plessis D’Argentré, Lina Han, Simin He, Jiaxin Huang, Maud Le Bras, Bingqing Shu

Documentary Short
“All the Empty Rooms” (Netflix) — dir. Joshua Seftel ***
“All the Walls Came Down” (Interloper Films) — dir. Ondi Timoner
“Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud” (HBO Documentary Films) — dir. Brent Renaud and Craig Renaud
“Chasing Time” (Exposure Labs) — dir. Sarah Keo and Jeff Orlowski-Yang
“The Devil is Busy” (HBO Documentary Films) — dir. Geeta Gandbhir, Christalyn Hampton

Live Action Short
“Extremist” (The New Yorker) — dir. Aleksandr Molochnikov
“Pantyhose” (Harmony Concepts) — dir. Fabian Munsterhjelm
“Rock, Paper, Scissors” (National Film and Television School)
“The Singers” (Highway West Entertainment)
“Two People Exchanging Saliva” (The New Yorker) ***

Top 5 projected Oscar nomination leaders (films): “Sinners” (15); “One Battle After Another” (14); “Frankenstein” (12); “Hamnet” (9); “Sentimental Value” (6)

Top 5 projected Oscar nomination leaders (studios): Warner Bros. (34); Netflix (20); Neon (16); Focus Features (12); A24 (8)