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ZDNET's key takeaways
- AI could replace 6% of US jobs by 2030.
- Not all recent job cuts are a direct result of AI.
- The US's productivity rate could indicate the real impact of AI.
AI might not be putting you on the breadline just yet.
A new report from research firm Forrester found that despite rampant anxiety around AI-driven job loss, the ubiquitous technology may only replace about 6% of jobs (about 10.4 million) in the US by 2030.
The report, which launched at the end of December and is titled "The Forrester AI Job Impact Forecast, US, 2025–2030," highlighted strategies for keeping AI job loss panic on a low simmer and pointed out ways in which hype may be clouding our understanding of what's really happening on the job market.
"It's not a small number, and [AI] will influence many more jobs and augment them and change how we work. That doesn't mean it's an apocalypse in the way that many people assume," Forrester VP, Principal Analyst J.P. Gownder told ZDNET.
Also: Anxious about AI job cuts? How white-collar workers can protect themselves - starting now
The report comes at a time when businesses are grappling with how to effectively implement and scale AI across their workforces, balancing the promises of cost savings and increased productivity with the reality of existing in the early days of buzzy tools like AI agents.
Meanwhile, workers are wondering how long they'll be able to keep their jobs. News of layoffs and public comments from some tech leaders often paint a pessimistic picture. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei said AI could wipe out half of entry-level white collar jobs. However, the firm's findings are in line with other projections, like an August report from Goldman Sachs, which estimated job losses in the 6-7% range, but only if adoption becomes widespread.
Forrester identified several ways to keep the fear in check. Those include not confusing financially-motivated layoffs with AI layoffs. Gownder said that some CEOs may take a "brute force" perspective, wanting to cut a certain percentage of jobs in the name of AI, without actually having a mature, vetted AI tool that can do the job.
Also: AI will cause 'jobs chaos' within the next few years, says Gartner - what that means
"You're not replacing a job with AI," Gownder said. "You're replacing a job for financialized reasons with the vague hope that at some point you may be able to create an AI that does the work, and it is not guaranteed."
The labor indicator to watch
The report also discussed keeping an eye on the right metrics – like productivity. Gownder explained that a jump in the US's productivity rate could be an indicator of AI's impact. In other words, fewer people doing more because of capital investments in AI. Currently, the rate's been lagging since the 1947-1973 era.
"Until you see massive gains, you're not going to see these job losses the way that some believe," Gownder said.
Still, Forrester made several revisions to earlier projections from 2023.
Among them is the expanded role that generative AI, including agents, will play in job losses. Forrester forecasts that generative AI will be the cause of about 50% of roles lost to automation in 2030, up from 30%.
Also: Is AI a career killer? Not if you have these skills, McKinsey research shows
The firm also echoed what others have reported, namely that early-career, customer-service, and software jobs may be among the most vulnerable.
To be sure, 6% still represents more than 10 million jobs, and trepidation among workers that they may be next to get a pink slip, in and of itself, could be damaging.
"If you start coming in with this attitude of, 'we're going to automate as many people as we can and eliminate jobs,' and then you fail at it. Guess what? You still need your human people… with a good attitude, a good intrinsic motivation, or it hurts your business," Gownder said.
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