Final Grammy Awards Predictions: Bad Bunny, Sabrina Carpenter and ‘Golden’ Set to Rule Music’s Biggest Night

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Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety chief awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

Awards Season Calendar (Updated Jan. 30, 2026): “Let God Sort Em Out” reads like a fitting title for one of the contenders for album of the year at the 2026 Grammys. It sounds good in theory, and yet reading the Almighty’s mind has thus far proven difficult in the Grammy-sifting process. So mere mortals must take up the task of predicting who will prevail in the top four all-genre categories.

In our own sorting, we’re seeing a race that’s too close to call in three of the four. But even though Bad Bunny hasn’t traditionally been a major favorite in the Grammys’ top categories, we have reason to wager that he’ll take home a big prize during the Feb. 1 CBS telecast… before he definitively wins the Super Bowl a week later.

Read Variety’s final Grammy predictions in select categories, along with expanded analysis of the Big Four races: album of the year, song of the year, record of the year and best new artist.

Final-round voting ran from Dec. 12, 2025, through Jan. 5, 2026, ahead of winners being revealed during the Grammy Premiere Ceremony and the 68th annual Grammy Awards telecast on Feb. 1. The ceremony will air on CBS and stream on Paramount+, with Trevor Noah returning as host.

Album of the Year

Image Credit: Variety

Bad Bunny — “Debí Tirar Más Fotos”
Justin Bieber — “Swag”
Sabrina Carpenter — “Man’s Best Friend”
Clipse — “Let God Sort Em Out”
Lady Gaga — “Mayhem”
Kendrick Lamar — “GNX”
Leon Thomas — “MUTT”
Tyler, the Creator — “Chromakopia”

Will Win: Bad Bunny
Could Win: Kendrick Lamar, Lady Gaga

Truly a three-way toss-up.

Here’s why Gaga could win: She’s severely overdue, never having won any of the top four categories, and there’s no ambiguity about how much people love “Mayhem.”

But here’s why Lamar could prevail: Hip-hop can match Gaga in past-due-ness in this category specifically, as the genre last scored here 22 years ago, when OutKast won. Still, Lamar took home both record and song of the year last year and could well repeat with record of the year again this season, so there may be less urgency to ensure he completes a sweep.

We’re taking an admittedly wild swing and going with Bad Bunny. True, his last album wasn’t even nominated, which under other circumstances would make him a long shot this time around. But recently, the Recording Academy invited all Latin Grammy voters to join the main body. The exact number of new voting members with a Latin focus hasn’t been revealed, but it represents a significant influx. That sudden shift in the membership rolls could be enough to tip the scales.
Record of the Year

“Abracadabra” — Lady Gaga
“Anxiety” — Doechii
“APT.” — Rosé & Bruno Mars
“DtMF” — Bad Bunny
“Luther” — Kendrick Lamar & SZA
“Manchild” — Sabrina Carpenter
“The Subway” — Chappell Roan
“Wildflower” — Billie Eilish

Will Win: Kendrick Lamar & SZA
Could Win: Bad Bunny, Lady Gaga

Another near toss-up. As the year’s leading nominee overall, Lamar seems likely to walk away with something in the top three categories, if not a sweep; the multi-month dominance of “Luther,” bolstered by the SZA assist, makes this a prime place for that to happen. The only potential speed bump is voter fatigue — some may feel he was rewarded enough last year, when “Not Like Us” won both record and song, and see this as a moment to consider who’s more overdue.

That could open the door for “Abracadabra” to work its magic and give Gaga her first win in a top category… or for a surge of cultural impact to push Bad Bunny into the conversation here, instead of — or in addition to — an album win. And Billie Eilish remains a dark horse with a song that debuted in a previous eligibility period but crashed this year’s party; even if she’s off-cycle album-wise, never count out a hit as massive as “Wildflower,” or a Grammy princess this queenly.
Song of the Year

Image Credit: Netflix

“Abracadabra” — Lady Gaga
“Anxiety” — Doechii
“APT.” — Rosé & Bruno Mars
“DtMF” — Bad Bunny
“Golden” (from “Kpop Demon Hunters”) — Huntr/x
“Luther” — Kendrick Lamar & SZA
“Manchild” — Sabrina Carpenter
“Wildflower” — Billie Eilish

Will Win: “Golden”
Could Win: Billie Eilish, Lady Gaga

“Golden” is nominated only for song of the year, not record of the year. That may make it seem counterintuitive to imagine the track having enough support to win best song when it didn’t even land a nomination for the category’s closest cousin. Yet there’s also an argument that being nominated in just one of the two could actually concentrate all the enthusiasm that does exist for the song into its lone chance to shine in a major category.

Song of the year is, after all, the right place for voters to agree that the “Demon Hunters” tune deserves recognition for its craftsmanship, even if it wasn’t the most bonkers-level smash of the year. And among the electorate are plenty of parents who heard it a million times — and kind of liked it by at least the thousandth listen — who may feel that the K-pop protectors of the universe deserve a significant win, not merely one in a down-ballot category. Still, there are genuinely five or six different ways this one could go.
Best New Artist

Best New Artist

Addison Rae
Alex Warren
Olivia Dean
Katseye
Leon Thomas
Lola Young
The Marías
Sombr

Will Win: Olivia Dean
Could Win: Leon Thomas, Sombr

Last year at this time, we said this was the only top category that was easy to predict: It absolutely would be Chappell Roan. This year, we feel nearly as confident about Dean. By one measure, she should be a long shot: This is her sole nomination. Then again, that’s also true for everyone else in the category — except Thomas, who has six.

So why not predict him? Because the chart winds shifted dramatically between nominations and final voting, with Dean’s album becoming a beloved top-five staple and a sellout tour on the way, with resale prices through the roof. Should she miss out this year, it’s not as if there won’t be other chances to reward her: Her album arrived just late enough that it won’t be eligible until next year.

But voters do think about career longevity, and the Academy may be happy to give Dean a head start on what looks like years of Grammy love to come.
Pop Solo Performance

Justin Bieber — “Daisies”
Lady Gaga — “Disease”
Lola Young — “Messy”
Sabrina Carpenter — “Manchild”
Chappell Roan — “The Subway”

Will Win: Sabrina Carpenter — “Manchild”
Could Win: Lady Gaga — “Disease”
Pop Vocal Album

Justin Bieber — “Swag”
Lady Gaga — “Mayhem”
Miley Cyrus — “Something Beautiful”
Sabrina Carpenter — “Man’s Best Friend”
Teddy Swims — “I’ve Tried Everything But Therapy, Part 2”

Will Win: Lady Gaga — “Mayhem”
Could Win: Sabrina Carpenter — “Man’s Best Friend”
Traditional Pop Vocal Album

Laila Biali — “Wintersongs”
Elton John & Brandi Carlile — “Who Believes in Angels?”
Jennifer Hudson — “The Gift of Love”
Lady Gaga — “Harlequin”
Laufey — “A Matter of Time”
Barbra Streisand — “The Secret of Life: Partners, Volume 2”

Will Win: Elton John & Brandi Carlile — “Who Believes in Angels?”
Could Win: Laufey — “A Matter of Time”
Pop Duo/Group Performance

Cynthia Erivo feat. Ariana Grande — “Defying Gravity”
KATSEYE — “Gabriela”
Kendrick Lamar & SZA — “30 for 30”
KPop Demon Hunters — “Golden”
Rosé & Bruno Mars — “APT.”

Will Win: Rosé & Bruno Mars — “APT.”
Could Win: KPop Demon Hunters — “Golden”
Visual Media Song

Image Credit: Netflix

Elton John: Never Too Late — “Never Too Late”
KPop Demon Hunters — “Golden”
Sinners — “I Lied to You”
Sinners — “Pale, Pale Moon”
Sinners — “Sinners”
Tron: Ares — “As Alive as You Need Me to Be”

Will Win: “Golden” — “KPop Demon Hunters”
Could Win: “I Lied to You” — “Sinners”
Visual Media Score

Image Credit: Warner Bros.

How to Train Your Dragon — “How to Train Your Dragon”
Severance — “Severance”
Sinners — “Sinners”
The Wild Robot — “The Wild Robot”
Wicked — “Wicked”

Will Win: “Sinners”
Could Win: “Wicked”
Visual Media Compilation

A Complete Unknown — “A Complete Unknown”
F1 — “F1”
KPop Demon Hunters — “KPop Demon Hunters”
Sinners — “Sinners”
Wicked — “Wicked”

Will Win: “Wicked”
Could Win: “KPop Demon Hunters”
Musical Theater Album

Buena Vista Social Club — “Buena Vista Social Club”
Death Becomes Her — “Death Becomes Her”
Gypsy — “Gypsy”
Just in Time — “Just in Time”
Maybe Happy Ending — “Maybe Happy Ending”

Will Win: “Maybe Happy Ending”
Could Win: “Death Becomes Her”
Music Film

Devo — “Devo”
Diane Warren — “Diane Warren: Relentless”
John Williams — “Music by John Williams”
Piece by Piece — “Piece by Piece”
Raye — “Live at the Royal Albert Hall”

Will Win: “Music by John Williams”
Could Win: “Raye: Live at the Royal Albert Hall”
Music Video

Image Credit: Variety

Clipse — “So Be It”
Doechii — “Anxiety”
OK Go — “Love”
Sade — “Young Lion”
Sabrina Carpenter — “Manchild”

Will Win: Sabrina Carpenter — “Manchild”
Could Win: Doechii — “Anxiety”
Comedy Album

Bill Burr — “Drop Dead Years”
Jamie Foxx — “What Had Happened Was”
Nate Bargatze — “Your Friend, Nate Bargatze”
Sarah Silverman — “PostMortem”
Ali Wong — “Single Lady”

Will Win: Jamie Foxx — “What Had Happened Was”
Could Win: Ali Wong — “Single Lady”
Latin Pop Album

Alejandro Sanz — “¿Y ahora qué?”
Andrés Cepeda — “Bogotá (Deluxe)”
Karol G — “Tropicoqueta”
Natalia Lafourcade — “Cancionera”
Rauw Alejandro — “Cosa Nuestra”

Will Win: Karol G — “Tropicoqueta”
Could Win: Natalia Lafourcade — “Cancionera”
Country Album

Kelsea Ballerini — “Patterns”
Eric Church — “Evangeline vs. the Machine”
Jelly Roll — “Beautifully Broken”
Miranda Lambert — “Postcards From Texas”
Tyler Childers — “Snipe Hunter”

Will Win: Kelsea Ballerini — “Patterns”
Could Win: Tyler Childers — “Snipe Hunter”
Rap Album

Clipse — “Let God Sort Em Out”
GloRilla — “Glorious”
JID — “God Does Like Ugly”
Kendrick Lamar — “GNX”
Tyler, the Creator — “Chromakopia”

Will Win: Kendrick Lamar — “GNX”
Could Win: Clipse — “Let God Sort Em Out”
Progressive R&B Album

Bilal — “Adjust Brightness”
Durand Bernarr — “Bloom”
Destin Conrad — “Love on Digital”
FLO — “Access All Areas”
Terrace Martin & Kenyon Dixon — “Come as You Are”

Will Win: FLO — “Access All Areas”
Could Win: Durand Bernarr — “Bloom”
R&B Album

Giveon — “Beloved”
Coco Jones — “Why Not More?”
Ledisi — “The Crown”
Leon Thomas — “MUTT”
Teyana Taylor — “Escape Room”

Will Win: Leon Thomas — “MUTT”
Could Win: Teyana Taylor — “Escape Room”
Alternative Music Album

Bon Iver — “Sable, Fable”
The Cure — “Songs of a Lost World”
Hayley Williams — “Ego Death at a Bachelorette Party”
Tyler, the Creator — “Don’t Tap the Glass”
Wet Leg — “Moisturizer”

Will Win: Hayley Williams — “Ego Death at a Bachelorette Party”
Could Win: Tyler, the Creator — “Don’t Tap the Glass”
Rock Album

Deftones — “Private Music”
HAIM — “I Quit”
Linkin Park — “From Zero”
Turnstile — “Never Enough”
Yungblud — “Idols”

Will Win: Deftones — “Private Music”
Could Win: HAIM — “I Quit”
Best Album Cover

“Chromakopia” — Tyler Okonma, art director (Tyler, the Creator)
“Debí Tirar Más Fotos” — Benito Antonio Martinez Ocasio, art director (Bad Bunny)
“The Crux” — Jake Hirshland, Joe Keery, Neil Krug, Taylor Vandergift & William Wesley II, art directors (Djo)
“Glory” — Cody Critcheloe & Andrew J.S., art directors (Perfume Genius)
“Moisturizer” — Iris Luz, Lava La Rue & Rhian Teasdale, art directors (Wet Leg)

Will Win: “Debí Tirar Más Fotos”
Could Win: “Chromakopia”
Songwriter of the Year, Non-Classical

Image Credit: David O’Donohue
- Amy Allen — “APT.” (Rosé & Bruno Mars) (S); “Bad as the Rest” (Jessie Murph) (S); “Hail Mary” (Shaboozey & Sierra Ferrell) (T); “Handlebars” (Jennie feat. Dua Lipa) (S); “Just Keep Watching” (Tate McRae) (S); “Lost in Translation” (Carín León & Kacey Musgraves) (S); “Manchild” (Sabrina Carpenter) (S); “Tears” (Sabrina Carpenter) (S); “Why” (Jon Bellion feat. Luke Combs) (S)
- Edgar Barrera — “Birthday Behavior” (BIA & Young Miko) (S); “Coleccionando Heridas” (Karol G & Marco Antonio Solís) (T); “Ese Vato No Te Queda” (Carín León & Gabito Ballesteros) (S); “Me Jalo” (Fuerza Regida & Grupo Frontera) (T); “Me Retiro” (Santana & Grupo Frontera) (S); “Milagros” (Karol G) (S); “Sígueme Besando Así” (Manuel Turizo) (T); “Soltera” (Shakira) (S); “Una Noche Contigo” (Juanes) (S)
- Jessie Jo Dillon — “Bless Your Heart” (Megan Moroney) (T); “Bottomland” (HARDY) (S); “Dreams Don’t Die” (Jelly Roll) (S); “First Rodeo” (Kelsea Ballerini) (T); “Happen to Me” (Russell Dickerson) (S); “Hello S***ty Day” (Jake Worthington & Miranda Lambert) (S); “If You Were Mine” (Morgan Wallen) (T); “Patterns” (Kelsea Ballerini) (T); “To the Men That Love Women After Heartbreak” (Kelsea Ballerini) (T)
- Tobias Jesso Jr. — “Another Baby!” (Dijon) (T); “Baby!” (Dijon) (T); “Daisies” (Justin Bieber) (T); “From” (Bon Iver) (T); “Go Baby” (Justin Bieber) (T); “Golden Burning Sun” (Miley Cyrus) (T); “Man I Need” (Olivia Dean) (S); “Relationships” (HAIM) (S); “Walking Away” (Justin Bieber) (T)
- Laura Veltz — “About You” (BigXthaPlug feat. Tucker Wetmore) (T); “Blue Strips” (Jessie Murph) (S); “Grand Bouquet” (Maren Morris) (T); “Leave Me Too” (Josh Ross) (S); “Parallel Universe” (Lauren Spencer Smith) (T); “Someone in This Room” (Jessie Murph feat. Bailey Zimmerman) (T); “Touch Me Like a Gangster” (Jessie Murph) (S); “What Tomorrow’s For” (Blessing Offor) (T); “You’ll Be OK, Kid” (from “Child Star” documentary) (Demi Lovato) (S)
Will Win: Amy Allen
Could Win: Tobias Jesso Jr.