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The actors are about to have their say.
The Screen Actors Guild Awards may have a new name, but their importance in the Oscar race is as vital as ever. Now called the Actor Awards, nominations will be announced Jan. 7. With more than 122,000 SAG-AFTRA performers eligible to vote — the largest voting body of any major awards show — the results often reflect populist tastes and broad mainstream appeal.
This year’s eligibility window covers performances released between Jan. 1 and Dec. 31, 2025, setting up what appears to be a competitive field across all categories.
Since the ensemble category was introduced in 1995, only four films — “Braveheart” (1995), “The Shape of Water” (2017), “Green Book” (2018) and “Nomadland” (2020) — have gone on to win best picture at the Academy Awards without earning a SAG ensemble nomination. Since the Academy expanded the best picture field in 2009, 61 of the 80 films nominated for SAG ensemble — a 76% success rate — have also received best picture nominations, underscoring the category’s value as a reliable Oscar indicator.
The ensemble race is as crowded as ever.
Warner Bros.’ “One Battle After Another” is entering as an early frontrunner with a star-studded cast led by Leonardo DiCaprio and Sean Penn, and a lineup that fits the guild’s well-established preference for recognizable names. There’s also some history to possibly be made. At a projected seven nominations, Paul Thomas Anderson’s action epic is poised to become the most nominated movie in the history of SAG. And there’s still room for one more in case Regina Hall makes the cut in supporting actress alongside Teyana Taylor.
The list of the most nominated films in SAG history is currently a six-way tie with five each: “Shakespeare in Love” (1998), “Chicago” (2002), “Doubt” (2008), “The Banshees of Inisherin” (2022), “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (2022) and “Wicked” (2024). Of those, “Shakespeare,” “Chicago” and “Everything Everywhere” went on to win the SAG Award for best cast ensemble before clinching the Academy Award for best picture. “Doubt” took home best actress at SAG for Meryl Streep (but lost the Oscar) while “Banshees” and “Wicked” both went home empty-handed.
Obviously, SAG’s predictive strength extends to the film acting races as well. Since 2009, SAG’s film acting nominees have overlapped with the Academy Awards an average of 16 out of 20 slots, an 80% match rate. The strongest alignment came in 2009, the year of “The Hurt Locker,” when 19 of 20 SAG nominees went on to earn Oscar nominations. The weakest crossover occurred in 2021, the year of “CODA,” when the overlap dropped to 12 of 20.
Last year’s best actor winner, Timothée Chalamet (“A Complete Unknown”), continues his momentum and is back with his turn as table tennis prodigy Marty Mauser in Josh Safdie’s “Marty Supreme.” Notably, no film actor has ever won back-to-back SAG Awards. That could open the door for someone else to take the top spot. Nonetheless, DiCaprio, Michael B. Jordan and Ethan Hawke are all expected to hear their names called. The organization has not been kind to non-English language performances, which is why a snub is projected for “The Secret Agent” star Wagner Moura. Despite emphatic praise from critics, the guild’s longstanding hesitation to nominate non-English language performances — see Sandra Hüller’s omission for “Anatomy of a Fall” — remains a barrier.
Still, there is some expected recognition for non-English storytelling with Renate Reinsve, Stellan Skarsgård and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas all predicted to make their respective lineups for the Norwegian family drama “Sentimental Value.”
Actors who are mainstays at the ceremony such as Glenn Close (who has 10 individual nominations and could appear for “Wake Up Dead Man”) or William H. Macy, who could find his way to a nomination for his work in “Train Dreams,” which is predicted to land in the cast ensemble category.
On the television side, the drama series race will likely be dominated by streaming platforms, with Apple TV’s “Severance” and HBO Max’s “The White Lotus” expected to lead the pack alongside Netflix’s final season of “Stranger Things.” In comedy, FX’s “The Bear” and HBO’s “Hacks” remain fixtures, while Apple TV could break through with Seth Rogen’s “The Studio.”
Some of the other individual acting categories showcase a mix of established favorites and veterans — Jean Smart, Jeremy Allen White, Adam Scott — and relative newcomers like Glen Powell for “Chad Powers.”
The limited series categories are heavily weighted toward Netflix, which could claim as many as eight of the 10 nomination slots across both male and female actor categories, led by their Emmy-winning miniseries “Adolescence.”
Nominations will be announced Wednesday, Jan. 7, 2026. Final voting to determine the winners will take place from Jan. 14 through Feb. 27 at noon Pacific time. The 32nd annual Actor Awards, presented by SAG-AFTRA, will air live on Netflix on March 1.
The final predictions in all film and TV categories are below.
Film Categories
Cast Ensemble in a Motion Picture
- “Hamnet” (Focus Features)
- “Marty Supreme” (A24)
- “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
- “Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
- “Train Dreams” (Netflix)
Alternates: “Sentimental Value” and “Wicked: For Good”
Male Actor in a Leading Role
- Timothée Chalamet, “Marty Supreme” (A24)
- Leonardo DiCaprio, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
- Joel Edgerton, “Train Dreams” (Netflix)
- Ethan Hawke, “Blue Moon” (Sony Pictures Classics)
- Michael B. Jordan, “Sinners” (Warner Bros.)
Alternates: Wagner Moura (“The Secret Agent”) and Dwayne Johnson (“The Smashing Machine”)
Female Actor in a Leading Role
- Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet” (Focus Features)
- Rose Byrne, “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You” (A24)
- Chase Infiniti, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
- Renate Reinsve, “Sentimental Value” (Neon)
- Emma Stone, “Bugonia” (Focus Features)
Alternates: Cynthia Erivo (“Wicked: For Good”) and Kate Hudson (“Song Sung Blue”)
Male Actor in a Supporting Role
- Jacob Elordi, “Frankenstein” (Netflix)
- Benicio Del Toro, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
- Paul Mescal, “Hamnet” (Focus Features)
- Sean Penn, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
- Stellan Skarsgård, “Sentimental Value” (Neon) ***
Alternates: William H. Macy (“Train Dreams”) and Andrew Scott (“Blue Moon”)
Female Actor in a Supporting Role
- Emily Blunt, “The Smashing Machine” (A24)
- Ariana Grande, “Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
- Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, “Sentimental Value” (Neon)
- Amy Madigan, “Weapons” (Warner Bros.)
- Teyana Taylor, “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
Alternates: Elle Fanning (“Sentimental Value”) and Wunmi Mosaku (“Sinners”)
Stunt Ensemble in a Motion Picture
- “F1” (Apple Original Films/Warner Bros.)
- “Frankenstein” (Netflix)
- “Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning” (Paramount Pictures)
- “One Battle After Another” (Warner Bros.)
- “Superman” (Warner Bros.)
- “Wicked: For Good” (Universal Pictures)
Alternates: “Frankenstein” and “Weapons”
Television Categories
Cast Ensemble in a Drama Series
- “Andor” (Disney+)
- “The Pitt” (HBO Max)
- “Severance” (Apple TV)
- “Stranger Things” (Netflix)
- “The White Lotus” (HBO Max)
Alternates: “The Morning Show” and “The Diplomat”
Cast Ensemble in a Comedy Series
- “Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
- “The Bear” (FX)
- “Hacks” (HBO Max)
- “Only Murders in the Building” (Hulu)
- “The Studio” (Apple TV)
Alternates: “The Paper” and “Wednesday”
Male Actor in a Drama Series
- Sterling K. Brown, “Paradise” (Hulu)
- Walton Goggins, “The White Lotus” (HBO Max)
- Ethan Hawke, “The Lowdown” (FX)
- Adam Scott, “Severance” (Apple TV)
- Noah Wyle, “The Pitt” (HBO Max)
Alternates: Tramell Tillman (“Severance”) and Tom Pelphrey (“Task”)
Male Actor in a Comedy Series
- Adam Brody, “Nobody Wants This” (Netflix)
- Glen Powell, “Chad Powers” (Hulu)
- Seth Rogen, “The Studio” (Apple TV)
- Alexander Skarsgård, “Murderbot” (Apple TV)
- Jeremy Allen White, “The Bear” (FX)
Alternates: Martin Short (“Only Murders in the Building”) and Ebon Moss-Bachrach (“The Bear”)
Female Actor in a Drama Series
- Kathy Bates, “Matlock” (CBS)
- Britt Lower, “Severance” (Apple TV)
- Katherine LaNasa, “The Pitt” (HBO Max)
- Keri Russell, “The Diplomat” (Netflix)
- Rhea Seehorn, “Pluribus” (Apple TV)
Alternates: Jennifer Aniston (“The Morning Show”) and Carrie Coon (“The White Lotus”)
Female Actor in a Comedy Series
- Kristen Bell, “Nobody Wants This” (Netflix)
- Quinta Brunson, “Abbott Elementary” (ABC)
- Hannah Einbinder, “Hacks” (HBO Max)
- Jenna Ortega, “Wednesday” (Netflix)
- Jean Smart, “Hacks” (HBO Max)
Alternates: Ayo Edebiri (“The Bear”) and Catherine O’Hara (“The Studio”)
Male Actor in a TV Movie or Limited Series
- Jason Bateman, “Black Rabbit” (Netflix)
- Owen Cooper, “Adolescence” (Netflix)
- Stephen Graham, “Adolescence” (Netflix)
- Charlie Hunnam, “Monster: The Ed Gein Story” (Netflix)
- Brian Tyree Henry, “Dope Thief” (Apple TV)
Alternates: Wagner Moura (“Dope Thief”) and Paul Giamatti (“Black Mirror”)
Female Actor in a TV Movie or Limited Series
- Erin Doherty, “Adolescence” (Netflix)
- Meghann Fahy, “Sirens” (Netflix)
- Sarah Snook, “All Her Fault” (Peacock)
- Christine Tremarco, “Adolescence” (Netflix)
- Michelle Williams, “Dying for Sex” (FX)
Alternates: Claire Danes (“The Beast in Me”) and Amanda Seyfried (“Long Bright River”)
Stunt Ensemble in a Comedy or Drama Series
- “Andor” (Disney+)
- “Fallout” (Prime Video)
- “Gen V” (Prime Video)
- “The Last of Us” (HBO Max)
- “Stranger Things” (Netflix)
Alternates: “Cobra Kai” and “Severance”
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