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Before Sunday’s Golden Globes ceremony, Hollywood will officially enter the “playoff” stage — or wildcard — stage of Oscar season. By Friday afternoon, the Directors Guild of America, Producers Guild of America, American Society of Cinematographers and BAFTA will roll out nominations and longlists that will dramatically narrow the field for more than two dozen films vying for Academy Awards attention (Variety’s SAG predictions for Wednesday are here)
Historically, this stretch becomes one of the highest-pressure tests for campaigns. With Oscar nomination voting starting on Monday, Jan. 12, it doesn’t leave a lot of room for pivots and campaign strategy changes. Momentum hardens, vulnerabilities are exposed and the gap between contenders and pretenders is out in the open.
At the DGA, the best director race is expected to align closely with the top contenders for best picture. The likeliest nominees include Paul Thomas Anderson (“One Battle After Another“), Ryan Coogler (“Sinners“) and Chloé Zhao (“Hamnet”). Anderson and Coogler currently lead in director wins for the season.
The two remaining spots represent a competitive dash between beloved veteran Guillermo Del Toro (“Frankenstein“) and American mainstay Josh Safdie (“Marty Supreme”), alongside four internationally known and acclaimed figures: Joachim Trier (“Sentimental Value”), Jafar Panahi (“It Was Just an Accident”), Kleber Mendonça Filho (“The Secret Agent”) and Yorgos Lanthimos (“Bugonia”).
The DGA’s first-time feature category will be one to watch. The category honoring first-time narrative filmmakers puts Eva Victor (“Sorry, Baby”) and Harry Lighton (“Pillion”) at the forefront, with room for actors-turned-directors like Kristen Stewart (“The Chronology of Water”) and Embeth Davidtz (“Don’t Let’s Go to the Dogs Tonight”) in the running.
At the PGA nominations, which drops on Friday, the guild is coming off overlapping eight of 10 with the Oscars’ best picture category last year, and the year prior achieving a historic 10-for-10 match. That feat isn’t expected to repeat this year given the landscape.
The predicted PGA lineup features Anderson’s “One Battle After Another,” Coogler’s “Sinners” and Zhao’s “Hamnet” as likely locks, joined by Del Toro’s “Frankenstein,” Safdie’s “Marty Supreme” and Trier’s “Sentimental Value.” Also expected to contend are Clint Bentley’s indie drama “Train Dreams,” along with populist favorites such as Joseph Kosinski’s “F1” and Jon M. Chu’s “Wicked: For Good.” We could see James Cameron’s billion-dollar earner “Avatar: Fire and Ash” also pop up.
The ASC race will likely shake things up in the race for cinematography. Autumn Durald Arkapaw (“Sinners”) is likely to join a short list of four women who have been nominated by the guild: Rachel Morrison for “Mudbound” (2017), Ari Wegner for “The Power of the Dog” (2021) and the only winner, Mandy Walker, for “Elvis” (2022). Alice Brooks earned a nom for “Wicked” (2024) last year and is in the conversation again with the sequel, “Wicked: For Good,” which made the cinematography Oscar shortlist.
Also in contention are Adolpho Veloso (“Train Dreams”), Michael Bauman (“One Battle After Another”), Łukasz Żal (“Hamnet”) and Dan Laustsen (“Frankenstein”) along with former ASC nominees Claudio Miranda (“F1”), Darius Khondji (“Marty Supreme”) and Robbie Ryan (“Bugonia”).
And then there’s the BAFTA longlist.
Also announcing on Friday, the organization from across the pond are expected to highlight both American studio films and international cinema. Unlike nominations, which will be announced after Oscar nomination voting has closed, these longlists will mostly feature 10 titles in most categories and 15 in Outstanding British Film (all categories are listed alphabetically below).
Del Toro’s “Frankenstein” is projected to lead the longlists with 12 mentions including best film and two acting mentions for its stars Oscar Isaac and Jacob Elordi. We’re expecting that Zhao’s “Hamnet,” Anderson’s “One Battle After Another” and Coogler’s “Sinners” to follow closely with 10 each.
This will be a key test for the genre film “Sinners,” as it remains unclear how international voters will respond. Given BAFTA’s long and well-documented struggles to recognize Black performers — Denzel Washington has still never received an acting nomination from the group — the hope is that the longlists will at least include Michael B. Jordan and Wunmi Mosaku, both of whom are among the film’s 10 projected mentions.
There are a few healthy tallies for other movies such as “Marty Supreme” (nine), “Bugonia” and “Sentimental Value” (eight), “Wicked: For Good” (seven) and “F1,” “Nuremberg,” “The Secret Agent” and “Train Dreams” with six each.
In the best film category, these 10 films are determined by all BAFTA voters using ranked voting, with points applied based on preference order. We’re expecting some of the usual suspects already mentioned but are looking out for the film or two that gets on the list as a “red herring” in the group (i.e., “All of Us Strangers” and “The Mauritanian” in previous years which all failed to garner a single Oscar nom).
The director longlist could feature up to 11 filmmakers under BAFTA’s gender parity intervention, which ensures equal representation of women and men directors. The Directing chapter votes for their top 10, with the system designed to balance the longlist. With non-binary multi-hyphenate Eva Victor heavily in the discussion, we’re likely to see the full 11 executed this year. Predictions include Anderson, Kathryn Bigelow (“A House of Dynamite”), Mary Bronstein (“If I Had Legs I’d Kick You”), Coogler, Del Toro, Kaouther Ben Hania (“The Voice of Hind Rajab”), Panahi, Lynne Ramsay (“Die My Love”), Trier, Victor and Zhao.
In the performance categories, BAFTA’s unique longlisting process has the Acting chapter vote determine the first seven places, while a jury selects the final three from those ranked eight through 13 in the chapter vote. When published, no distinction is made between chapter-selected and jury-selected performances.
One important eligibility reminder as BAFTA longlists are unveiled: despite its strong visibility in the animated feature conversation, Netflix’s “KPop Demon Hunters” is ineligible for BAFTA consideration.
By the end of the week, the awards-season map will look far less abstract. The next few days will determine whether they are still in the race — or should pack it up.
The full list of predictions are below.
Directors Guild of America (DGA)
Directorial Achievement in Theatrical Feature Film
Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another”
Ryan Coogler, “Sinners”
Guillermo Del Toro, “Frankenstein”
Josh Safdie, “Marty Supreme”
Chloé Zhao, “Hamnet”
Alternate: Joachim Trier, “Sentimental Value”
First-Time Theatrical Feature Film
Hasan Hadi, “The President’s Cake”
Harry Lighton, “Pillion”
Kristen Stewart, “The Chronology of Water”
Charlie Polinger, “The Plague”
Eva Victor, “Sorry, Baby”
Alternate: Diego Céspedes, “The Mysterious Gaze of the Flamingo”
Producers Guild of America (PGA)
Outstanding Producer of Documentary Theatrical Motion Pictures
“Bugonia” (Ed Guiney, Yorgos Lanthimos, Andrew Lowe, Emma Stone)
“F1” (Jerry Bruckheimer, Dede Gardner, Lewis Hamilton, Joseph Kosinski, Jeremy Kleiner, Chad Oman, Brad Pitt)
“Frankenstein” (J. Miles Dale, Guillermo Del Toro, Scott Stuber, Gary Ungar)
“Hamnet” (Nicolas Gonda, Pippa Harris, Liza Marshall, Sam Mendes, Steven Spielberg)
“Marty Supreme” (Ronald Bronstein, Eli Bush, Timothée Chalamet, Anthony Katagas, Josh Safdie)
“One Battle After Another” (Paul Thomas Anderson, Sara Murphy, Adam Somner, JoAnne Sellar)
“Sentimental Value” (Andrew Berenstsen Ottmar, Maria Ekerhovd)
“Sinners” (Ryan Coogler, Zinzi Coogler, Sev Ohanian)
“Train Dreams” (Michael Heimler, Will Janowitz, Marissa McMahon, Teddy Schwarzman, Ashley Schlaifer)
“Wicked: For Good” (Marc Platt)
Alternate: “It Was Just an Accident”
American Society of Cinematographers (ASC)
Achievement in Cinematography in Theatrical Releases
“Frankenstein” — Dan Laustsen
“Hamnet” — Łukasz Żal
“One Battle After Another” — Michael Bauman
“Sinners” — Autumn Durald Arkapaw
“Train Dreams” — Adolpho Veloso
Alternate: “F1” — Claudio Miranda
BAFTA Longlists
Best Film
“Bugonia”
“Frankenstein”
“Hamnet”
“It Was Just an Accident”
“Marty Supreme”
“Nuremberg”
“One Battle After Another”
“The Secret Agent”
“Sentimental Value”
“Sinners”
Director
Paul Thomas Anderson, “One Battle After Another”
Kathryn Bigelow, “A House of Dynamite”
Mary Bronstein, “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You”
Ryan Coogler, “Sinners”
Guillermo Del Toro, “Frankenstein”
Kaouther Ben Hania, “The Voice of Hind Rajab”
Jafar Panahi, “It Was Just an Accident”
Lynne Ramsay, “Die My Love”
Joachim Trier, “Sentimental Value”
Eva Victor, “Sorry, Baby”
Chloé Zhao, “Nomadland”
Leading Actress
Jessie Buckley, “Hamnet”
Rose Byrne, “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You”
Cynthia Erivo, “Wicked: For Good”
Kate Hudson, “Song Sung Blue”
Chase Infiniti, “One Battle After Another”
Renate Reinsve, “Sentimental Value”
Amanda Seyfried, “The Testament of Ann Lee”
Emma Stone, “Bugonia”
Tessa Thompson, “Hedda”
Eva Victor, “Sorry, Baby”
Leading Actor
Lee Byung-hun, “No Other Choice”
Timothée Chalamet, “Marty Supreme”
Leonardo DiCaprio, “One Battle After Another”
Joel Edgerton, “Train Dreams”
Ethan Hawke, “Blue Moon”
Oscar Isaac, “Frankenstein”
Michael B. Jordan, “Sinners”
Wagner Moura, “The Secret Agent”
Jesse Plemons, “Bugonia”
Jeremy Allen White, “Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere”
Supporting Actress
Emily Blunt, “The Smashing Machine”
Zoey Deutch, “Nouvelle Vague”
Elle Fanning, “Sentimental Value”
Ariana Grande, “Wicked: For Good”
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, “Sentimental Value”
Amy Madigan, “Weapons”
Wunmi Mosaku, “Sinners”
Gwyneth Paltrow, “Marty Supreme”
Teyana Taylor, “One Battle After Another”
Emily Watson, “Hamnet”
Supporting Actor
Benicio Del Toro, “One Battle After Another”
Jacob Elordi, “Frankenstein”
Damson Idris, “F1”
Paul Mescal, “Hamnet”
Sean Penn, “One Battle After Another”
Adam Sandler, “Jay Kelly”
Andrew Scott, “Blue Moon”
Alexander Skarsgård, “Pillion”
Jeremy Strong, “Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere”
Stellan Skarsgård, “Sentimental Value”
Original Screenplay
“Blue Moon”
“It Was Just an Accident”
“Jay Kelly”
“Marty Supreme”
“Nouvelle Vague”
“The Secret Agent”
“Sentimental Value”
“Sinners”
“Sorry, Baby”
“Urchin”
Adapted Screenplay
“Bugonia”
“Frankenstein”
“Hamnet”
“The History of Sound”
“No Other Choice”
“Nuremberg”
“One Battle After Another”
“Pillion”
“Train Dreams”
“Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery”
Casting
“Bugonia”
“F1”
“Frankenstein”
“Hamnet”
“Marty Supreme”
“One Battle After Another”
“The Secret Agent”
“Sentimental Value”
“Sinners”
“Sirât”
Animated Film
“Arco”
“Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba Infinity Castle”
“Elio”
“In Your Dreams”
“Little Amélie or the Character of Rain”
“Zootopia 2”
Production Design
“Bugonia”
“F1”
“Frankenstein”
“Hamnet”
“Hedda”
“Marty Supreme”
“Nuremberg”
“One Battle After Another”
“Sinners”
“Wicked: For Good”
Cinematography
“Ballad of a Small Player”
“F1”
“Frankenstein”
“Hamnet”
“Marty Supreme”
“No Other Choice”
“Nouvelle Vague”
“One Battle After Another”
“Sinners”
“Train Dreams”
Costume Design
“Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale”
“Frankenstein”
“Hamnet”
“Marty Supreme”
“Nouvelle Vague”
“Nuremberg”
“Sinners”
“The Testament of Ann Lee”
“Train Dreams”
“Wicked: For Good”
Editing
“Bugonia”
“F1”
“Frankenstein”
“Hamnet”
“Marty Supreme”
“No Other Choice”
“One Battle After Another”
“Sentimental Value”
“Sinners”
“Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere”
Make Up and Hair
“Blue Moon”
“Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale”
“Frankenstein”
“Mr. Burton”
“Nuremberg”
“One Battle After Another”
“Sinners”
“The Smashing Machine”
“The Testament of Ann Lee”
“Wicked: For Good”
Sound
“Avatar: Fire and Ash”
“Bugonia”
“F1”
“Frankenstein”
“A House of Dynamite”
“One Battle After Another”
“Sinners”
“Sirât”
“Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere”
“Wicked: For Good”
Special Visual Effects
“Avatar: Fire and Ash”
“F1”
“Frankenstein”
“How to Train Your Dragon”
“Mickey 17”
“Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning”
“The Running Man”
“Sinners”
“Superman”
“Wicked: For Good”
Original Score
“Ballad of a Small Player”
“Bugonia”
“F1”
“Frankenstein”
“Hamnet”
“One Battle After Another”
“Sinners”
“Sirât”
“The Testament of Ann Lee”
“Train Dreams”
Documentary
“2000 Meters to Andriivka”
“Below the Clouds”
“Cutting Through Rocks”
“The Librarians”
“Love + War”
“Mr. Nobody Against Putin”
“Orwell 2+2=5”
“The Perfect Neighbor”
“Riefenstahl”
“The Tale of Silyan”
Film Not in the English Language
“It Was Just an Accident”
“No Other Choice”
“Nouvelle Vague”
“A Private Life”
“Resurrection”
“The Secret Agent”
“Sentimental Value”
“Sirât”
“Sound of Falling”
“The Voice of Hind Rajab”
Outstanding British Film
“28 Years Later”
“Ballad of a Small Player”
“The Ballad of Wallis Island”
“The Choral”
“Die My Love”
“Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale”
“Hamnet”
“My Father’s Shadow”
“Ocean with David Attenborough”
“Pillion”
“Rabbit Trap”
“The Six Billion Dollar Man”
“Steve”
“Urchin”
“Warfare”
English (US) ·