2026 Will Be a Crucial Year for Disney’s Two Biggest Megafranchises

Last year was good for Disney. The Mouse House was the only studio with three films to gross more than $1 billion worldwide: Lilo & Stitch, Zootopia 2, and Avatar: Fire and Ash. As fewer audiences fill theaters and studios continue to compete with streaming, that’s not a bad haul.

But missing from 2025’s billion-dollar club are two of cinema’s biggest franchises. For yet another year, Star Wars was relegated to Disney+. And despite three big releases, the Marvel Cinematic Universe – formerly Hollywood’s safest bet – failed to generate much audience enthusiasm. This year, both mega sagas will return to the big screen with The Mandalorian and Grogu and Avengers: Doomsday. But what were once sure things now come with major question marks.

Can 'The Mandalorian' Be More Than TV at the Movies?

In May, Jon Favreau’s The Mandalorian and Grogu will bring Star Wars back to theaters for the first time since The Rise of Skywalker. In previous years, a new Star Wars was guaranteed to pack auditoriums. But six years after J.J. Abrams's much-derided ending to the sequel trilogy, Star Wars is in a much different place than when The Force Awakens reinvigorated the franchise.

While that film was a major hit that launched several sequels and spinoffs, subsequent entries were inconsistent and divisive. The Last Jedi is considered among the best Star Wars movies by some fans, but it’s hated by others. Rogue One similarly split fans, and Solo: A Star Wars Story is largely a footnote. The films were financially successful, with all but Solo making more than $1 billion, but fans might be skeptical about future entries after being burned a few times.

About the same time that The Rise of Skywalker was earning groans, The Mandalorian was restoring hope to the galaxy on Disney+. It was, for a long time, the streaming platform’s flagship series. But Star Wars stories spent the next six years solely on streaming, and some fans have complained that nothing in The Mandalorian and Grogu’s trailer seems to set it apart from what came before. Ironically, after The Mandalorian confirmed that Star Wars could work on TV, The Mandalorian and Grogu will test whether audiences want it back in theaters or whether the franchise's future lies with week-to-week shows like Andor.

'Avengers: Doomsday' Is a Make-It or Break-It Moment for Marvel

Star Wars has been around for nearly 50 years, and has survived Ewoks, multiple Death Stars, and diatribes about sand. But despite having triple the amount of live-action features as Star Wars, the Marvel Cinematic Universe has barely been around 20 years, and Avengers: Doomsday might be its biggest test of longevity

Similar to Star Wars, 2019 was a crucial year for the MCU. But while The Rise of Skywalker was souring fans, Avengers: Endgame seemed to prove that Marvel would long be the biggest game in town. While there were a few giant hits in the Multiverse Saga – notably Spider-Man: No Way Home and Deadpool and Wolverine – the wheels quickly started to come off the wagon. Eternals flopped, and sequels like Doctor Strange and the Multiverse of Madness and Thor: Love and Thunder made money but quickly evaporated from the conversation. Like Star Wars, Marvel leaned on streaming, but the longer they went on, the more the enthusiasm dampened; for every hit like Loki, there was a muddled mess like Secret Invasion. While Star Wars’s Disney+ series deepened the mythology and explored new corners of its universe, Marvel’s series only made the overarching story more convoluted.

Avengers: Doomsday is entering theaters not as a victory lap but as a last chance for theatrical domination. Three Marvel movies were released in 2025, and while only Captain America: Brave New World was an overt critical and commercial disappointment, both Thunderbolts* and The Fantastic Four: First Steps disappointed at the box office, with James Gunn’s Superman emerging as the new cool comic book movie. Fans were further frustrated by the bloat and increased narrative tangles, and the announcement that Robert Downey Jr. would return to the MCU as Doctor Doom and, more recently, that Chris Evans will also return as Steve Rogers have a whiff of desperation. Superhero fatigue has long been a concern, but Avengers: Doomsday comes at a particularly crucial time for Marvel Studios.

Two Major Franchises Reach a Turning Point in 2026

To be clear: Neither The Mandalorian and Grogu nor Avengers: Doomsday will be the end of their sagas. Future installments have already been announced, and these properties are too big to lie dormant for long. Star Wars: Starfighter is currently in production starring Ryan Gosling, and one year after Avengers: Doomsday, Joe and Anthony Russo will put Earth’s Mightiest Heroes back to work for Avengers: Secret Wars.

But if this year’s entries in Disney’s two biggest franchises disappoint, changes will likely follow. Streaming might be the future for any Star Wars series outside the main saga. Marvel’s massive team-ups might be pulled back. Budgets will likely be cut. Artistically, a few restrictions could be good for both franchises. But at a time when the theatrical experience is struggling, seeing audiences lose interest in the movies’ two biggest events could be a dire sign.